North American grain/oilseed review: Canola climbs higher Wednesday

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market posted solid gains at Wednesday’s close after trading within a wide range.

Tightening supplies and the need to ration demand accounted for some of the buying interest. Statistics Canada is set to release updated stocks data on Thursday. Canola stocks as of March 31 are forecast to be down by as much as six million tonnes from the year-ago level of 9.6 million tonnes.

Losses in Chicago soyoil put some pressure on canola, tempering the upside. European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were also down on the day.

There were 33,751 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 36,014 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 16,194 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were mixed on Wednesday, with losses in the front months and a firmer tone in the more deferred positions.

Optimism over upcoming trade talks between China and the United States lent some support, although market participants were skeptical if much would come out of the discussions.

Relatively favourable U.S. seeding weather weighed on values, although seeded area is expected to be down on the year.

CORN was also pressured by the good U.S. weather and planting progress. Midwestern forecasts look favourable for seeding over the next 10 days.

Rising production estimates out of Brazil were also bearish.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases updated supply/demand estimates on May 12, with pre-report positioning a feature.

WHEAT was also lower, as dry winter wheat growing regions of the U.S. received welcome rains.

Rising Russian production estimates added to the softer tone. Russian-based IKAR raised its 2025 wheat production forecast to 83.8 million tonnes, from 82.5 million in 2024.