North American grain/oilseed review: Canola continues higher Thursday

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Thursday, settling above its 20-day moving average in the May contract first time in a month as a rally in the Chicago soy complex provided support.

The May contract briefly tested the psychological C$600 per tonne mark but settled just below that level.

In addition to the spillover strength from the gains in Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil futures were also higher on the day.

Canola remains attractively priced from an end user standpoint, keeping some export interest in the market. However, recently imposed Chinese tariffs on canola oil and meal, along with uncertainty over looming tariffs from the United States remained a bearish influence in the background.

There were 43,171 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 54,541 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 21,162 of the contracts traded.

CBOT soybeans rally, corn down ahead of acreage report

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Thursday, hitting their highest levels of the past month as expectations for a smaller acreage base in the United States this spring provided support.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s prospective plantings report will be released March 31, with average trade guesses calling for a three to four million acre cut from the 87.050 million acres of soybeans seeded last year.

Quarterly stocks data will also be released next week. Average trade guesses calling for an increase in soybean stocks as of March 1 from the 1.85 billion bushels on hand at the same time last year.

Weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 338,500 tonnes were at the low end of trade expectations.

The Brazilian soybean harvest is nearing completion, and supplies from the country are finding their way to export channels — displacing some U.S. business.

CORN futures were pressured by expectations for increased U.S. corn acres in 2025.

Average trade guesses call for an increase of at least three million acres from the 90.6 million acres seeded in 2024, with some analysts forecasting U.S. corn plantings could be up by as much as six million acres on the year.

U.S. corn stocks as of March 1 are forecast to tighten from 8.35 billion bushels a year ago.

Weekly U.S. corn export sales came in at just over a million tonnes, which was in line with trade guesses but still down 30 per cent on the week.

WHEAT was mixed, with gains in the hard red wheat futures and losses in Chicago soft wheat.

Weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 100,300 tonne of old crop business were at the lower end of expectations.

U.S. spring wheat acres are generally expected to hold steady with the 10.6 million acres seeded last year, with total U.S. wheat area expected to be within a million acres of the 46.1 million acres grown in 2024.