North American grain/oilseed review: Canola continues higher to end week
By Phil Franz-Warkentin
Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market saw a continuation of Thursday’s rally on Friday, hitting its highest levels since November as tightening stocks and the need to ration demand provided support.
Statistics Canada reported canola stocks in the country as of Dec. 31 at 11.382 million tonnes, which compares with 14.087 million at the same time a year ago and marks the tightest level for this time of year since the drought year in 2021.
Weekly Canadian canola exports of 145,800 tonnes were down 29 per cent from the previous week, but year-to-date exports of 5.484 million tonnes were roughly double what moved by the same time in 2023-24.
Gains in Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil provided underlying support, although soybeans and European rapeseed futures were weaker.
There were 67,509 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 66,363 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 49,868 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Friday, despite gains in soyoil, as renewed concerns over United States trade policies under Donald Trump — and the likelihood of retaliation from other countries — weighed on prices.
While U.S. tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada were delayed earlier this week, Trump said Friday that he will announce tariffs on many other countries next week.
Improving weather conditions in South America contributed to the losses in soybeans. After hot and dry weather hurt soybean crops in Argentina, forecasts are now calling for some welcome rain over the next week.
The advancing Brazilian harvest was another bearish influence, as more export demand shifts away from the U.S.
Monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture supply/demand estimates will be released next week Tuesday, with pre-report positioning another feature of Friday’s trade.
CORN futures were well off the multi-month highs hit earlier in the week, as traders squared positions and took some risk out of the market.
Declining crop ratings for Argentina’s corn crop were somewhat supportive, although the rains expected over the next week were bearish.
WHEAT saw a modest correction lower to end the week. However, concerns over cold temperatures damaging winter wheat crops in Europe and the Black Sea region provided some support.
Canadian wheat stocks as of Dec. 31 at 24.481 million tonnes were up 0.9 per cent on the year, according to a report from Statistics Canada. That was in line with trade expectations.