North American grain/oilseed review: Canola continues uptrend to close week

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Friday, hitting its highest levels since the end of July.

The move above C$660 per tonne in the most-active January contract was bullish from a technical standpoint, encouraging additional buying.

Malaysian palm oil, European rapeseed and Chicago soyoil futures were all stronger on the day, providing spillover support for the Canadian oilseed. Gains in Chicago soybeans added to the firmer tone, as a larger-than-expected cut to soybean yields in the United States Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply/demand report underpinned that market.

The canola market will be closed Monday for Remembrance Day, with pre-weekend positioning a feature of the trade.

Canada exported 204,100 tonnes of canola during the week ended Nov. 3, taking the crop year-to-date total to 3.1 million tonnes, according to the latest Canadian Grain Commission data. That compares with only 1.6 million tonnes by the same point the previous year.

There were an estimated 65,325 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 65,433 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 38,876 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade futures had a bullish reaction to monthly supply/demand data from the United States Department of Agriculture that included a larger than expected reduction in U.S. soybean yields.

The USDA cut their call on 2024/25 U.S. soybean yields by 1.4 bushels per acre from their October estimate, now at 51.7 bu./ac. Production was lowered by 121 million bushels, to 4.461 billion bushels.

Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks were also on the tighter side, down by 80 million from the October estimate at 470 million bushels.

The USDA reported private export sales of 107,000 tonnes of soybeans to China and an additional 132,000 tonnes to other unknown destinations.

CORN was also underpinned by the USDA data, briefly hitting its highest levels in four months before running into resistance.

Average U.S. corn yields were lowered by 0.7 bu./ac.— now at 183.1 bushels per acre, with total production at 15.143 billion bushels.

That was below average trade guesses and compared with last year’s crop of 15.341 billion bushels.

The USDA reported private export sales of 200,480 tonnes of corn to unknown destinations.

WHEAT was weaker, as the USDA balance sheet was generally neutral for the grain.

World wheat ending stocks trimmed slightly, at 257.57 million tonnes, while projected U.S. wheat carryout stocks were up by only three million bushels from October at 815 million bushels.