North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola, corn, soybeans surge

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market sharply rose on Friday, fueled by comparable oils.

Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil all made large gains. Crude oil surged more than US$1.50 per barrel due to sanctions to be imposed on Russian oil.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported canola exports for the week ended Jan. 5 at 189,700 tonnes. So far this marketing year, canola exports are at a record pace at 4.722 million tonnes, compared to 2.507 million one year ago.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced new guidance for the 45Z biofuel tax credit on Friday, which lit a fire in oilseeds. Analysts expect U.S. demand for biofuel could create a situation where canola fills a need formerly filled by used cooking oil.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down two-tenths of a U.S. cent compared to Thursday’s close.

There were 105,603 canola contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 37,432 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 59,446 of the contracts traded.

The United States Department of Agriculture released a trio of reports on Friday, most notably its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

The March CORN contract, which had already been rising since mid-December, reached its highest level since June after the USDA projected tighter ending stocks for 2024-25.

The USDA estimated 2024-25 corn production at 14.867 billion bushels, down 276 million from the December estimate. The projected carryout declined by 198 million bushels at 1.540 billion, below the average estimate. Quarterly stocks as of Dec. 1 were 12.074 billion bushels, down 97 million from one year earlier and below trade estimates.

World corn ending stocks were projected to be 293.34 million tonnes, down 3.1 million from the December report.

The USDA also reported 445,000 tonnes of corn were sold for export during the week ended Jan. 2, a marketing-year low.

A week of choppy trading for the March SOYBEAN contract ended by reaching its highest level since November.

U.S. soybean production for 2024-25 was pegged at 4.366 billion bushels, according to the USDA, 95 million less than in December’s report. Ending stocks declined by 90 million bushels at 380 million, below expectations. Quarterly stocks were at 3.099 billion bushels, up 98 million from last year but below trade estimates.

World ending stocks were cut by 3.5 million tonnes at 128.37 million.

A marketing-year low of 288,700 tonnes of U.S. soybeans were sold for export during the week ended Jan. 2. In addition, 114,900 tonnes of old crop soymeal were also sold, as well as 1,100 tonnes of new crop soymeal and 34,600 tonnes of soyoil.

Ending stocks for U.S. WHEAT stayed within trade estimates and saw little price movement compared to corn and soybeans.

U.S. wheat production was steady at 1.971 billion bushels with ending stocks up three million from last month’s estimate at 798 million. Quarterly grain stocks were up 148 million bushels from last year at 1.569 billion.

World ending stocks increased by 940,000 tonnes at 258.82 million.

In another marketing year low, 111,300 tonnes of U.S. wheat were sold for export during the week ended Jan. 2.

The USDA’s winter wheat seedings report showed seeded area at 34.115 million acres, up 725,000 from last year.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported 272,400 tonnes of wheat exports during the week ended Jan. 5, up from 192,300 the previous week. Cumulative wheat exports this marketing year total 8.711 million tonnes compared to 9.105 million one year ago.