North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola down, grains surge

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was under some pressure on Wednesday due to mixed comparable oils.

While European rapeseed was steady to higher, Chicago soyoil was lower and crude oil was also down due to a large buildup in United States stockpiles. There was no trading for Malaysian palm oil due to the Lunar New Year holiday.

An analyst said the main concern in the canola market is the potential tariffs on Canadian goods imported by the U.S. to be in effect on Feb. 1. The analyst also speculated whether the tariff news is already factoring into the loonie’s exchange rate.

Statistics Canada reported today that 1.015 million tonnes of canola were crushed in December, compared to 1.019 million in November and 943,302 in December 2023. Also, StatCan reported December canola deliveries of more than 1.51 million tonnes versus nearly 1.08 million tonnes in December 2023.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down nearly one-quarter of a U.S. cent compared to Tuesday’s close. The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points at three per cent earlier today, while the U.S. Federal Reserve kept theirs unchanged.

There were 41,188 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 42,683 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 19,544 of the contracts traded.

The March CORN contract hit its highest level since late May on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday.

The United States Energy Information Administration reported 1.015 million barrels of ethanol produced per day on average for the week ended Jan. 26, down 84,000 from one week earlier. Ethanol stocks were down 152,000 barrels at 25.722 million.

The southern U.S. Corn Belt could see rains of up to 75 millimetres this weekend, while temperatures in the northern and western Corn Belt will be lower than normal early in February.

Anec cut its projection for January Brazilian corn exports by 180,000 tonnes at 3.35 million. Delays in Brazil’s soybean harvest could limit planting area for the country’s safrinha corn crop.

Ukraine’s ag ministry said the country exported 25.35 million tonnes of grains this marketing year so far, including 12.17 million tonnes of corn.

The March SOYBEAN contract had its biggest gain in six sessions, while also reaching a three-day high.

Statistics Canada reported 160,035 tonnes of soybeans were crushed in December, compared to 142,230 in November and 152,209 in December 2023.

Anec raised its January Brazilian soymeal export estimate by 40,000 tonnes at 1.85 million.

The Parana port authority in southern Brazil detected sand in soymeal cargoes during an inspection earlier this week. In total, 51 trucks carrying 2,200 tonnes were identified as moving the adulterated product. The country’s ag ministry will investigate whether the companies complied with regulations.

The March contracts for all three major U.S. WHEAT varieties made big gains, but Minneapolis spring wheat exceeded the US$6 per bushel mark and reached its highest level since Nov. 12.

StatCan reported 2.689 million tonnes of all wheat were delivered in December, compared to 2.736 million in November and 2.205 million in December 2023. The figure included 547,422 tonnes of durum delivered in December, compared to 652,538 tonnes in November and 253,927 in December 2023.

Ukraine’s wheat exports so far this marketing year reached 10.7 million tonnes.

Russia’s weather agency said 38 per cent of the country’s winter crops were in poor condition. Russia’s ag ministry projected 57 million tonnes in grain exports for 2024-25, down from 72 million last year due to quotas.

Japan issued a tender for 89,134 tonnes of wheat, with 29,070 coming from the U.S.