North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola down, wheat drops again

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm – ICE canola futures slipped on Tuesday in choppy trading, with the new crop contracts taking slightly bigger losses.

While Chicago soyoil was up, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were down. Crude oil declined after making gains earlier in the day due to what one analyst said was optimism from trade talks between the United States and China.

Tight old crop supplies and concerns over the forthcoming crop continued to underpin canola. However, rain in the Prairie forecast this week could alleviate the situation.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down less than one-tenth of a U.S. cent compared to Monday’s close.

There were 53,718 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 55,842 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 33,902 of the contracts traded.

United States WHEAT futures saw declines again on Tuesday due to improved crop conditions, upcoming rainfall in the U.S. and price pressures in Europe.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported the winter wheat crop was 88 per cent headed as of June 8, two points above the five-year average. The harvest was only four per cent complete, three points behind the average. The biggest improvement in winter wheat was in Nebraska, while conditions deteriorated the most in Montana.

The spring wheat crop was 82 per cent emerged, one point ahead of normal. Conditions improved by another three points at 53 per cent good to excellent.

Cumulative European Union soft wheat exports for 2024-25 were 19.49 million tonnes, behind the 29.23 million from the same period last year.

SOYBEANS turned around on Tuesday after yesterday’s losses, with the July contract hitting a new high point for this month.

The projected U.S. soybean crop was 90 per cent planted, two points ahead of the five-year average. Emergence improved by 12 points at 75 per cent, three points ahead of average. Conditions were up one point at 69 per cent good to excellent. Missouri saw the biggest improvement, while Kansas deteriorated the most.

Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his 2024-25 Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates unchanged from last week at 169 million tonnes and 48.5 million, respectively. Dr. Cordonnier also left his estimated 2025-26 U.S. yields unchanged at 51.5 bushels per acre.

ANEC projected Brazilian soybean exports for June at 14.08 million tonnes, up 1.53 million from last week’s estimate.

July CORN was higher at the end of day, but fell below the US$4.30 per bushel mark in the middle of trading for the first time since October.

The U.S. corn crop was 97 per cent planted, on track with the five-year average, while emergence was at 90 per cent, two points above average. Conditions improved by three points at 71 per cent good to excellent. Kansas slipped four points, but North Dakota’s and Ohio’s crops improved by 12 and 11 points, respectively.

Cordonnier raised his Brazilian 2024-25 corn production estimate by one million tonnes at 130 million, while that for Argentina was unchanged at 50 million. He also left his 2025-26 U.S. yield estimate of 181 bu./ac. unchanged.

ANEC estimated Brazil’s corn exports to total 923,401 tonnes in June, up nearly 88,000 tonnes from its previous number.

South Korean firms purchased a total of 269,000 tonnes of corn from unknown origin on Monday night.