North American grain/oilseed review: Canola drops Monday

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was weaker on Monday, as losses in Chicago soybeans and soyoil spilled over to weigh on values.

Airstrikes on Iran by the United States over the weekend led to wide price swings in crude oil, with eventual weakness in the energy markets accounting for some of the selling pressure in the grains and oilseeds.

Relatively favourable North American growing conditions also weighed on values, with parts of the Prairies receiving welcome rains.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released updated supply/demand estimates late Friday, raising their call on canola exports in 2024/25 to 9.0 million tonnes. With just over a month left to go in the crop year, Canada has already exported 8.8 million tonnes of canola, the Canadian Grain Commission said in its latest report.

Statistics Canada will release updated seeded area estimates on Friday, with strength in the canola market since the last report was released in March expected to lead to an increase in canola area.

There were 60,681 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 54,862 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 33,936 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Monday, with favourable Midwestern weather forecasts and losses in crude oil weighing on values.

Mounting tensions in the Middle East after the United States attacked Iran over the weekend were overhanging the grains and oilseeds, although eventual losses in crude oil weighed on values amid ideas Iran was unlikely to follow through on threats to shut down transportation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Weather forecasts calling for warm and wet weather across the U.S. Midwest over the next week were bearish, with the conditions thought to be ideal for crop development.

CORN also reacted to the selloff in crude oil and good U.S. weather forecasts.

Expectations for an upward revision to U.S. corn plantings when the U.S. Department of Agriculture releases updated acreage estimates on June 30 also weighed on values.

WHEAT futures were lower across the board, with the advancing U.S. harvest behind some of the weakness.

The U.S. winter wheat harvest was thought be nearing 20 per cent completion, with condition ratings thought to be in decent shape.

Meanwhile, rains in the Northern Plains should be helping improve moisture levels for spring wheat.