North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola falls, grains mixed

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market plummeted on Monday after China announced late Friday it will place 100 per cent tariffs on Canadian canola oil, meal and peas, as well as a 25 per cent duty on Canadian aquatic products and pork. The tariffs, set for March 20, are retaliation for those placed by Canada on Chinese-made electric vehicles, steel and aluminum last year.

Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were also down. Meanwhile, crude oil was lower due to tariff uncertainty and planned output hikes from OPEC+.

One analyst said since canola seed was not tariffed, there may still be room for China to change its mind. However, another analyst predicted new levies on canola seed could come by next week.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down four-tenths of a United States cent compared to Friday’s close.

There were 102,899 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 35,818 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 62,052 of the contracts traded.

All three major United States WHEAT varieties saw double-digit gains at the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, despite waning exports and warmer temperatures ahead. May Kansas City hard red wheat and Minneapolis spring wheat saw their biggest one-day gains since Feb. 14.

The trade is looking at a three million bushel increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks at 797 million when the U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its monthly supply/demand estimates on Tuesday. It also anticipated world ending stocks to be up 200,000 tonnes from last month at 257.8 million.

The USDA reported a lowly 216,713 tonnes of U.S. wheat shipped for export during the week ended March 6. However, marketing year exports are currently at 15.85 million tonnes, 17.8 per cent above last year.

China will implement additional 15 per cent tariffs on U.S. corn and wheat imports.

The Southern Plains should see high temperatures surpassing 20 degrees Celsius this week.

The May SOYBEAN contract had its second loss in as many sessions, but remained above US$10 per bushel for the third straight day.

The trade expects the USDA to leave ending stocks for U.S. soybeans unchanged at 380 million bushels. Meanwhile, the Brazilian production estimate would rise by 500,000 tonnes at 169.5 million and Argentina’s would be down 100,000 tonnes at 48.9 million.

AgRural reported the Brazilian soybean crop is 61 per cent harvested, up six points from a year ago.

The USDA reported 844,218 tonnes of soybeans were shipped for export last week, with marketing year exports at 38.44 million, 9.6 per cent above last year.

The Chinese have implemented an additional 10 per cent tariff on U.S. soybean imports.

The May CORN contract rose for the fourth straight day on Monday, matching its longest rally since mid-February.

The trade estimated 2024-25 U.S. corn carryout to be reduced by 24 million bushels at 1.54 billion.

Last week, 1.819 million tonnes of U.S. corn were shipped for export, a marketing year high. Total exports this marketing year are at 29.078 million, 33 per cent more than one year ago.

Argentina’s corn production forecast may be lowered by one million tonnes at 49 million, while Brazil’s would be unchanged at 126 million.

AgRural estimated Brazil’s safrinha corn crop to be 92 per cent planted as of March 6.