North American grain/oilseed review: Canola falls to three-week lows

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market fell to its lowest levels in three weeks on Thursday, seeing a continuation of Wednesday’s selloff. Increased farmer hedges after recent gains, bearish technical signals and spillover from outside markets contributed to the declines.

Canola was not included in interim rules on biofuel feedstock guidelines from the United States Department of Agriculture released Wednesday, which raised concerns over demand from the U.S. biodiesel sector and weighed on values.

Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were all down on the day, adding spillover pressure on the canola market.

However, tightening supply projections and the need to ration demand going forward helped temper the declines.

There were an estimated 85,621 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 75,170 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 55,778 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Thursday, as forecasts calling for much needed rains in dry areas of Argentina and the looming Brazilian harvest weighed on prices.

While record monthly crush data released Wednesday was somewhat supportive, the resulting large supplies of both soymeal and soyoil were bearish.

Weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 569,000 tonnes were in line with trade guesses. The U.S. Department of Agriculture also reported private export sales of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China this morning.

CORN futures were also pressured by the improving weather outlook for Argentina.

Weekly U.S. corn export sales of just over a million tonnes topped trade guesses, providing some support. The USDA also reported flash exports of 135,000 tonnes of corn to Taiwan.

The International Grains Council released updated world production estimates, trimming their world corn estimate for 2024/25 by six million tonnes — now at 1.219 billion tonnes.

WHEAT was weaker across the board. European wheat prices fell to their lowest levels in six weeks, due in part to reduced export demand as cheaper Black Sea origin wheat continues to find its way into export channels. Newly harvested supplies from Australia and Argentina are also starting to make their way to market.

The IGC left its call on world wheat production this year at 796 million tonnes, as a cut to Russia’s crop was offset by an increase in Australia.