North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola, grains go to the downside

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market moved to the downside on Friday to go with comparable oils showing gains and declines.

Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil were lower, while European rapeseed sharply rose and crude oil was also higher.

An analyst said canola is at an all-time record discount compared to European rapeseed, which now has inverted spreads. However, the analyst noted canola is being weighed down by the Chicago soy complex.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported canola exports for the week ended Dec. 8 at 140,200 tonnes, down from 193,400 the previous week. So far this marketing year, 4.029 million tonnes have been exported compared to 2.144 million one year ago.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down two-tenths of a United States cent compared to Thursday’s close.

There were 71,714 canola contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 89,207 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 44,138 of the contracts traded.

The March CORN contract at the Chicago Board of Trade was in the red on consecutive days for the first time since Dec. 4.

Ukraine’s agricultural ministry said the country is on track to produce 55 million tonnes of grain in 2024. It also said Ukraine had an exportable surplus of 20.5 million tonnes of corn during 2024-25. As of Dec. 13, Ukraine has exported eight million tonnes of corn this marketing year.

Chinese 2024 corn production rose 2.1 per cent from the previous year at 294.92 million tonnes.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said a lack of recent rainfall has put a halt to corn planting in the top producing Argentine province of Cordoba. Nationally, corn planting was 56 per cent complete, while the crop so far was in 98 per cent good to excellent condition.

The January SOYBEAN contract finished the day lower for the first time in four sessions. The March contract closed below US$10 per bushel, also for the first time in four sessions.

The United States National Oilseeds Processors Association will release its monthly crush data on Monday, with the trade estimating 196.713 million bushels of soybeans processed in November. Soyoil stocks were estimated to be 1.123 billion pounds.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a private export sale of 200,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery later this marketing year.

December palm oil production in Malaysia could be down by as much as 20 per cent in December due to ongoing rainfall and floods.

Just like corn, the March contract for Chicago WHEAT dropped in back-to-back days for the first time since Dec. 4. For the March Minneapolis spring wheat contract, that hadn’t happened since Nov. 14.

The CGC reported 360,200 tonnes of Canadian wheat exports during the week ended Dec. 8, compared to 478,500 tonnes one week earlier. So far this marketing year, 7.271 million tonnes have been exported, down from 7.543 million last year.

Ukraine has an exportable surplus of 16.2 million tonnes of wheat, of which 9.2 million were already sent out of the country.

Ukraine’s producers union said wheat export prices could be up US$20 to US$25 per tonne in December.

SovEcon said December Russian wheat exports could decline by 17 per cent from November.