North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola, grains in the green

Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market continued its upward momentum on Tuesday despite coming off its highs.

While European rapeseed was up, Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil were down. Meanwhile, crude oil corrected itself from Monday’s gains.

Statistics Canada (StatCan) will release its latest principal field crop report Wednesday morning at 7:30 a.m. CDT. One analyst said he believes the 2023 canola production numbers will be revised upward by at least 500,000 tonnes and this year’s figure should exceed the current estimate of 18.63 million tonnes. However, citing StatCan’s methodology, the analyst added he wouldn’t take much stock in the numbers.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was up more than one-tenth of a United States cent compared to Monday’s close.

There were 46,749 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 31,696 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 22,970 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEANS were up on Tuesday for the third-straight day and the sixth time over their past seven sessions at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Despite hitting a high unseen since Aug. 12, the November contract did not reach US$10 per bushel.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported on Monday conditions for the U.S. soybean crop to be down one point at 67 per cent good to excellent as of Aug. 25. Meanwhile, 89 per cent of the crop was setting pods and six per cent were dropping leaves, both figures slightly above their five-year averages.

Farmers in Argentina are likely to plant up to five million more acres of soybeans this year, filling the void left after last year’s corn crop was affected by disease, according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. Analysts say it could be the largest soy planting expansion in the country in decades.

Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his forecasts unchanged for the U.S. soybean crop with the yield at 53.5 bushels per acre and production at 4.61 billion bushels.

From July 1 to Aug. 23, soybean imports in the European Union totaled 1.77 million tonnes, down from 2.3 million last year.

The December CORN contract ended its three-day slide on Tuesday, while it matched its contract low set on Monday.

The USDA reported the rating for the U.S. corn crop dropped two points at 65 per cent good to excellent as of Aug. 25. The crop was also 84 per cent in the dough stage, 46 per cent dented and 11 per cent mature.

The EU cut its corn yield forecast to 7.03 tonnes per hectare, compared to 7.24 in July and down six percentage points from last year due to hot weather in southeast Europe.

Cordonnier left his U.S. corn crop forecasts unchanged at a yield of 183.5 bushels per acre and production at 15.17 billion bushels.

The USDA reported a private export sale of 127,760 tonnes of new crop corn to Mexico this morning.

The December contracts for all three major U.S. WHEAT varieties made gains on Tuesday, with Chicago wheat making the biggest moves.

Conditions for the U.S. spring wheat crop were down four points at 69 per cent good to excellent. Also, 51 per cent of the crop has been harvested, compared to 31 per cent the week before, but down two points from the five-year average.

Recent rains in Argentina were not enough to improve the country’s wheat crop, according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. While Argentina planted 15.56 million acres of wheat for the 2024-25 season, the crop has been adversely affected by winter frosts and a lack of precipitation.

EU soft wheat exports have totaled 3.93 million tonnes from July 1 to Aug. 23, down 1.1 million from one year ago.