North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola, grains in the red

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was lower on Friday after the Trump administration confirmed that 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports into the United States will be imposed Feb. 1 despite conflicting media reports.

Earlier in the day, an analyst said there was speculation the Trump administration could exempt Canadian crude oil and/or Canadian agricultural products from the tariffs. The analyst also said that if the tariffs are implemented, canola prices will come down but will later rebound due to price rationing as supplies become tighter.

Chicago soyoil and crude oil were up, while European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were mostly higher.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down one-half of a U.S. cent compared to Thursday’s close.

There were 102,000 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 40,812 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 61,718 of the contracts traded.

The March CORN contract suffered consecutive losses on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday as it dropped to its lowest price since Monday.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said Argentina’s corn crop was 28 per cent excellent, 50 per cent normal and 22 per cent poor. The amount rated excellent was down two points from last week, while those considered poor were up two points.

Hot and dry weather over the next two weeks will put additional stress on Argentina’s corn and soybean crops with rains delayed until mid-February. Much of Brazil is also expected to be drier for the next two weeks, but southern regions will receive rains.

The United States Department of Agriculture released its Cattle Inventory report today with the total herd as of Jan. 1 at 86.7 million head, down 0.6 per cent from one year earlier and above trade expectations.

The March SOYBEAN contract fell to its lowest level in two weeks despite spending much of the day in positive territory.

The BAGE reported conditions for Argentina’s soybean crop at 20 per cent excellent, 52 per cent normal and 28 per cent poor. Excellent was down two points while normal was up two points from last week.

The USDA will release its December crush report on Monday with the trade estimating a record-breaking 217.6 million bushels for soybeans, up 3.6 per cent from November and up 6.6 per cent from December 2023. Soyoil stocks were projected to be 1.734 billion pounds.

Chinese state-owned grain trader COFCO said it is still committed to a moratorium on purchasing Brazilian soybeans grown from areas in the Amazon deforested after 2008.

WHEAT prices were down modestly despite the March contracts for all three major U.S. varieties trading at a range of at least 15 U.S. cents per bushel on Friday.

The central and southern U.S. Plains will be dry this weekend, but starting next week, temperatures there will be slightly below normal while precipitation will be above normal.

India extended its trading ban on derivative contracts for some grains and food items until the end of March, including those for wheat, soybeans, chickpeas and crude palm oil.

Morocco has suspended feed grain shipments from Germany until the latter’s outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease is contained.