North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola, grains mostly lower

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market dipped ahead of the announcement of the reciprocal tariffs by United States President Donald Trump at 3 p.m. CDT.

An analyst said canola may be pressured by declining prices in the Chicago soy complex after the latter’s rally on Tuesday. He also believes “the worst of the sentiment” is already factored into canola prices.

Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil made gains, while European rapeseed was mostly higher. Crude oil was up slightly.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was up one-tenth of a U.S. cent compared to Tuesday’s close.

There were 54,199 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 69,645 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 30,170 of the contracts traded.

Most grain futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were lower on Wednesday, hours before United States President Donald Trump’s announcement on reciprocal tariffs. While Canada plans on enacting tariffs of its own in retaliation, Mexico said it will not.

The May CORN contract ended a three-day rally after being in the red on Wednesday. However, it still remained above US$4.50 per bushel all day.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported 421.2 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol in February, down 10 per cent from January and down 5.4 per cent from February 2024. The marketing year total so far is 2.754 billion bushels, 1.3 per cent ahead of last year.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported average daily ethanol production for the week ended March 28 to be up 10,000 barrels per day at 1.063 million. Ethanol stocks were down 738,000 barrels at 26.61 million.

StoneX projected Brazilian corn production to be 25.6 million tonnes for the first crop, down 630,000 tonnes from the previous estimate. Also, 101.62 million tonnes were projected for the safrinha crop, down 510,000 from the last estimate.

ANEC raised its March Brazilian corn export estimate at 474,200 tonnes.

Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his South American corn production estimates unchanged at 122 million tonnes in Brazil and 46 million in Argentina.

This marketing year, Ukraine has exported 17 million tonnes of corn so far.

SOYBEANS showed small losses on Wednesday after making large gains the day before.

StoneX cut its Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 800,000 tonnes at 167.54 million.

ANEC estimated March Brazilian soybean exports at a record high of 16.09 million tonnes.

Cordonnier kept his South American soybean production estimates unchanged at 169 million tonnes for Brazil and 48 million for Argentina.

Kansas City hard red winter WHEAT was slightly higher, but prices for Chicago soft and Minneapolis spring wheat varieties were slightly lower than unchanged.

Russian wheat stocks as of March 1 were at 11.6 million tonnes, down 34 per cent from last year. Wheat exports from Russia that month were 1.78 million tonnes, compared to 5.13 million one year earlier.

In Ukraine, wheat exports were 1.1 million tonnes in March. With 13 million tonnes already shipped out in 2024-25, the country is leaving its wheat export limit for the marketing year at 16.2 million tonnes.

European Union soft wheat exports this marketing year are at 15.68 million tonnes, down from 24.54 million last year.