North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola, grains moving up

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market made small gains on Tuesday amidst mixed sentiment in comparable oils.

Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil were down while European rapeseed was up. Meanwhile, crude oil was slightly higher.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down more than one-tenth of a United States cent compared to Monday’s close.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly World Agricultural Supply/Demand Estimates earlier today. Its 2024-25 Canadian canola production estimate was lowered to 18.80 million tonnes from 20 million in November. That compares with Statistics Canada’s current estimate of 17.85 million tonnes.

One analyst said farmers may not start selling canola until prices surpass the C$640 per tonne level.

There were 90,781 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 60,310 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 70,816 of the contracts traded.

The United States Department of Agriculture released its monthly World Agricultural Supply/Demand Estimates earlier today as tighter supplies boosted prices at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The March CORN contract hit its highest level since early October due to greater-than-expected demand and exports.

The 2024-25 U.S. corn carryout was cut by 200 million bushels from the November estimate at 1.738 billion, which would be 22 million below the 2023-24 carryout. Global corn carryout fell by 7.70 million tonnes at 296.44 million.

Argentina’s and Brazil’s corn production estimates were left unchanged at 51 million and 127 million, respectively.

China’s ag ministry lowered its corn production estimate by 3.17 million tonnes at 293.84 million.

Spain purchased 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes of U.S. corn for shipment in early 2025.

The January SOYBEAN contract remained rangebound after briefly hitting the US$10 per bushel mark.

U.S. soybean ending stocks were projected to be 470 million bushels, unchanged from November but up 128 million from last year. The world soybean carryout increased by 130,000 tonnes at 131.87 million.

Brazil’s soybean crop was unchanged at 169 million, while Argentina’s was raised one million tonnes at 52 million.

China imported 7.15 million tonnes of soybeans in November with the calendar year total at 97.09 million, up 9.4 per cent from last year.

All three major U.S. WHEAT varieties saw increases in their March contracts, with Kansas City hard red wheat and Minneapolis spring wheat reaching their highest levels since late November.

U.S. wheat carryout was down by 20 million bushels from November at 795 million bushels, up 80 million from the previous year. World ending stocks were up 310,000 tonnes at 257.88 million tonnes.

Kansas reported wheat conditions were down one point from the past week at 55 per cent good to excellent. Light precipitation is forecast for much of the U.S. Midwest and Northern Plains this week.

Jordan tendered for 120,000 tonnes of optional origin milling wheat, as well as 120,000 tonnes of feed barley.