North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola higher, mixed bag at CBOT

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market extended its rally on Monday, despite mixed sentiment in comparable oils.

European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were higher to start the week, while Chicago soyoil was lower. Crude oil gained more than US$1 per barrel due to Middle East tensions and new stimulus to kickstart the Chinese economy.

One analyst said the markets may be entering “smiley holiday trade”, while another added that canola could rally even higher due to continued Chinese buying as well as strong basis levels and spreads.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was steady compared to Friday’s close.

There were 60,310 canola contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 89,582 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 41,144 of the contracts traded.

The March CORN contract at the Chicago Board of Trade reached its highest level since Nov. 21 on Monday before closing higher for the third straight session.

The trade estimated 2024-25 U.S. corn carryout to be cut 32 million bushels at 1.906 billion ahead of the United States Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply/demand estimates to be released on Tuesday. The figure would still be eight per cent above the previous year.

World corn ending stocks would be 303.6 million tonnes, down from last month’s estimate of 304.14 million.

The USDA said the country shipped 1.05 million tonnes of corn for export during the week ended Dec. 5, up 10.6 per cent from last year. Inspections since Sept. 1 have totaled 12.133 million tonnes, up nearly 32 per cent from last year and a six-year high.

March WHEAT contracts for all three major U.S. varieties reached their highest levels in two weeks.

The trade estimated U.S. wheat carryout to be at 815 million bushels, the same as the USDA’s November estimate and up from 696 million in 2023-24.

Meanwhile, global wheat ending stocks would be 257.7 million tonnes, up 130,000 from November but down from 266.25 million last year. In total, 226,513 tonnes of U.S. wheat were shipped for export last week, down 24.1 per cent from the previous week. Year-to-date shipments since June are at 11.217 million tonnes, up 30 per cent from last year.

The French soft wheat crop is 96 per cent planted, up three points from the week prior and up nine points from last year.

Argus Media raised its Ukrainian wheat production estimate by 1.3 million tonnes at 23.7 million.

The January SOYBEAN contract surpassed the US$10 per bushel mark briefly for the first time in nearly three weeks, but ended the day lower.

The trade anticipates a one million bushel cut to 2024-25 U.S. soybean carryout at 469 million.

As for world soybean ending stocks, average pre-report trade guesses come in at 132.8 million tonnes, above the November estimate of 131.74 million and up 18 per cent from last year.

The USDA said 1.622 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans were shipped last week, up 62 per cent from the previous week. Marketing year-to-date shipments totaled 23.438 million tonnes, up 18.6 per cent from last year.

AgRural reported Brazil’s soybean crop was 95 per cent planted as of Thursday, up four points from last year.