North American grain/oilseed review: Canola holds onto gains amid tariff uncertainty

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market held onto small gains on Thursday but settled well off its session highs as markets reacted to shifting tariff news out of the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media that tariffs on Mexican imports would be delayed until April 2, with that news giving the U.S. grains and oilseeds a boost. While Trump maintained his antagonistic stance towards Canada on social media, other U.S. officials suggested a reprieve was possible and reports came out after the agricultural markets closed that Canadian tariffs would also be paused for a month.

Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil futures were all higher on the day.

Tightening canola supplies and the need to ration demand remained supportive for canola, with the downturn earlier in the week likely seen as a buying opportunity by some end users.

The Canadian dollar was stronger at midday, putting some pressure on values.

There were 43,363 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 62,879 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 17,880 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Thursday, as United States tariffs on Mexican imports were paused until April. Tariffs on Canadian imports were also paused in the amendment signed by President Donald Trump, although Canada was not included in earlier statements.

Weekly U.S. soybean export sales came in at the low end of trade expectations, at about 352,000 tonnes of old crop business. However, additional new crop sales of about 55,000 tonnes were supportive.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture also reported private export sales of 20,000 tonnes of soyoil to unknown destinations this morning.

The advancing Brazilian harvest remained a bearish influence, especially as more Chinese export demand is expected to shift away from the U.S. and towards South America. Pauses to U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports were not included in Thursday’s trade developments.

CORN futures were also underpinned by the latest tariff news, as Mexico is a large buyer of U.S. corn.

Weekly U.S. corn export sales came in at just under a million tonnes of old and new crop business combined, which was at the high end of trade guesses.

Expectations for increased U.S. corn acres this spring remained a bearish influence.

WHEAT was caught up in the general strength, with weakness in the US dollar adding to the firmer tone.

Weekly U.S. wheat export sales of about 340,000 tonnes were in line with pre-report guesses.