North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola lower, grains higher

Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market stepped back Friday after adding large gains on Thursday.

Statistics Canada reported Canadian canola deliveries totaled 2.225 million tonnes in July, up from 1.398 million one year earlier.

One trader said Thursday’s canola rally was largely fueled by Chicago soyoil, which also took a step back today. The trader added that the rally provided a bonus selling opportunity for growers and he believes Canada’s canola crop is smaller than Statistics Canada’s 2024-25 estimate of 19.5 million tonnes.

Chicago soyoil was down, while European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were higher. However, crude oil retreated by nearly US$2 per barrel on speculation OPEC+ will increase output later this year.

Markets in Canada and the United States will be closed on Monday for the Labour Day holiday.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down one-tenth of a U.S. cent compared to Thursday’s close.

There were 42,252 canola contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 49,848 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 17,340 of the contracts traded.

The November SOYBEAN contract at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose for the fifth time in six sessions on Friday. The contract also ended the day at US$10 per bushel for the first time in three weeks.

The United States Department of Agriculture reported export sales commitments for U.S. soybeans totaled 45.666 million tonnes, 99 per cent of the USDA’s projected total for 2023-24. Forward sales were at 10.158 million as of Aug. 22, the third-lowest amount since 2010.

Soyoil used as a feedstock for biodiesel production in the U.S. in June totaled 1.267 billion pounds, the largest amount since July 2023.

CORN made gains on the CBOT on consecutive days for the first time since Aug. 4 and 5. The November contract also closed above US$4/bu. for the first time in 11 days.

The USDA reported accumulated old crop corn export sales commitments to be 55.951 million tonnes or 98 per cent of the USDA’s forecast for 2023-24. Forward sales for new crop totaled 9.42 million tonnes, up 12.9 per cent from last year.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported the Argentine corn harvest was 99.3 per cent complete and the total crop size would be 46.5 million tonnes, lower than the USDA’s estimate of 50 million.

Corn planting in Argentina is expected to decline 17 per cent for the 2024-25 crop year due to concerns over leafhoppers and drought.

The European Union reduced its 2024-25 corn crop production outlook to 61.65 million tonnes, compared to its previous estimate of 62.9 million.

France’s corn crop was rated at 79 per cent good to excellent, up three points from last week.

All three major U.S. WHEAT varieties rose for the fourth straight day. Minneapolis spring wheat made the biggest gains, with the November contract closing above US$6/bu. for the first time since Aug. 20.

Statistics Canada reported Canadian wheat deliveries totaled 2.657 million tonnes in July, up 18.5 per cent from the year before. Durum deliveries in July were up 15.1 per cent from one year ago at 200,900 tonnes.

Wheat export sales commitments in the U.S. now total 10.023 million tonnes, 45 per cent of the USDA’s projected total for 2024-25.

Ukraine’s ag ministry reported that 21.76 million tonnes of wheat out of the forecasted 56 million have been harvested so far.

Australia’s upcoming wheat harvest should produce 31 million tonnes, two million more than previously forecast due to timely rains in growing regions and five million more than in the 2023-24 crop year.

SovEcon trimmed its 2024-25 Russian wheat production estimate by 800,000 tonnes at 82.5 million.