North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola lower, grains mixed

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was lower on Thursday despite mostly positive sentiment in comparable oils.

Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed were higher while Malaysian palm oil was down. Crude oil made gains as demand for heating fuel outweighed growing United States stockpiles.

One analyst said despite canola’s declines, Chicago soyoil still has positive momentum. The March soyoil contract traded above 42 cents for the first time in nearly a month on Thursday. He identified 43 U.S. cents per pound as a new target level to trigger a canola rally.

Most U.S. markets closed at 12:15 p.m. CST today for the state funeral of former president Jimmy Carter.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was steady compared to Wednesday’s close.

There were 37,432 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 42,887 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 20,214 of the contracts traded.

Most United States markets, including grain markets at the Chicago Board of Trade, closed at 12:15 p.m. CST Thursday for the state funeral of former president Jimmy Carter.

The March CORN contract traded higher for the third time in four sessions on Thursday. However, the trading ranges have gotten smaller during that time, keeping the contract rangebound.

Ahead of the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply/demand estimates tomorrow, the trade estimated U.S. corn production for 2024-25 at 15.095 billion bushels, down 58 million from last month’s report.

Harvested area was slated to be down 72,000 acres at 82.638 million and the average yield to decline by 0.3 bushels per acre at 182.7.

The USDA will also release its quarterly grain stocks report as of Dec. 1, 2024 on Friday, with the trade expecting corn stocks to be 12.147 billion bushels, down 24 million from last year.

South Korea purchased 65,000 tonnes of corn from either the U.S. or South America.

The March SOYBEAN contract briefly reached US$10 per bushel for the second straight session, but fell below US$9.90/bu. for the third time in five sessions.

U.S. soybean production was estimated by the trade at 4.453 billion bushels, eight million less than the December USDA report.

Harvested area was set to rise by 35,000 acres at 86.306 million, with average yield to be down by 0.1 bushel per acre at 51.6.

The trade also estimated quarterly U.S. soybean stocks at 3.231 billion bushels, 230 million more than one year earlier.

All three major U.S. WHEAT varieties finished lower for the second straight day.

Before the release of the USDA’s winter seedings report on Friday, the trade estimated total wheat acres at 33.366 million, 24,000 less than in 2024. Hard red winter wheat would decline 54,000 acres at 23.733 million. Soft red winter wheat would gain 79,000 acres at 6.141 million. White wheat would lose 45,000 acres at 3.496 million.

U.S. quarterly wheat stocks were pegged by the trade to be 1.565 billion bushels, 144 million more than one year earlier.

Taiwan purchased 114,650 tonnes of U.S. milling wheat for March-April shipment.

Pending regulatory approval, the CME Group is planning to offer hard red spring wheat futures and options in the second quarter of this year.