North American grain/oilseed review: Canola mixed Thursday

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was mixed at Thursday’s close, with losses in the front months and gains in the more deferred positions.

November canola ran into resistance around C$620 per tonne for the second session in a row, settling well below that chart point. Seasonal harvest pressure and increased farmer selling at the highs weighed on prices.

However, end-user bargain hunting and speculative short covering provided underlying support, with the canola market consolidating in a narrow range.

Gains in Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed underpinned canola, while soybeans were lower on the day.

There were an estimated 58,794 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 68,109 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 40,736 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Thursday, as improving weather conditions in Brazil and concerns over declining Chinese demand for soybeans from the United States weighed on values.

Positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture supply/demand report was a feature.

Average trade guesses are for U.S. soybean yields to hold steady or be revised slightly lower from the September forecast of 53.2 bushels per acre. Only minor adjustments to the usage and stocks numbers are expected.

Weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 1.26 million tonnes were in line with trade estimates, but the lowest of the past four weeks.

CORN settled with small losses, with the advancing U.S. harvest behind some of the selling pressure. Forecasts call for warm and dry conditions across most of the Midwest over the next week, which should allow farmers to continue making good progress.

Weekly U.S. corn export sales came in at 1.22 million tonnes. That was down from the previous week, but in line with trade estimates.

Some market participants expect to see a downward revision to U.S. corn yields in Friday’s report, as drier weather conditions have led to lighter bushel weights.

WHEAT remained supported by Russian production concerns and ongoing uncertainty over grain movement through the Black Sea.

Declining production estimates out of Argentina were also supportive. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its call on Argentina’s wheat crop by one million tonnes, now at 19.5 million tonnes.

Weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 433,000 tonnes were in line with trade estimates.