North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola plunges, USDA releases estimates

Glacier FarmMedia – Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange had its worst day in recent memory on Tuesday. China announced earlier today it will impose a 75.8 per cent preliminary anti-dumping duty on Canadian canola starting Thursday. Prices fell by more than C$40 per tonne but made a small recovery before the end of the day. It is thought to be retaliation for Canada placing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles last year.

An analyst said there is no way for China to replace the amount of canola it purchases from Canada. He also said one of the reasons canola futures weren’t down by their limit is that Canada needed to pare down its export program due to low supply. Another analyst said canola could trade below C$600 per tonne in the coming days.

Also on Tuesday, China and the United States agreed to extend their tariff truce by another 90 days, effectively delaying tariff rate hikes on Chinese imports.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was up less than one-tenth of a U.S. cent compared to Monday’s close.

There were 185,805 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 39,732 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 83,478 of the contracts traded.

The United States Department of Agriculture released its August supply/demand estimates earlier today, causing significant price movement on the Chicago Board of Trade.

SOYBEANS gained more than 21 U.S. cents per bushel on Tuesday, largely due to a lower production estimate despite a projected record yield as the USDA downwardly revised its acreage estimate for the crop.

The USDA trimmed its acreage estimate by 2.5 million acres from the July report at 80.9 million. While the yield was slightly above expectations at 53.6 bushels per acre, the production estimate was reduced by 43 million bushels at 4.292 billion. Old crop carryout was cut by 20 million bushels at 330 million, while new crop stocks were reduced by 30 million bushels at 290 million.

World carryout for new crop was tightened by 1.17 million tonnes at 124.9 million. Argentine and Brazilian production were unchanged at 48.5 million and 175 million tonnes, respectively.

The USDA also reported on Monday that 91 per cent of the U.S. soybean crop was blooming by Aug. 10 with 71 per cent setting pods, slightly behind the average pace. Soybean conditions were down one point from the previous week at 68 per cent good to excellent with Tennessee losing 32 points.

Anec estimated Brazil’s August soybean exports at 8.8 million tonnes, up 650,000 tonnes from its previous estimate and 760,000 tonnes above last year.

CORN dropped more than 12 U.S. cents per bushel after gaining most of the acreage soybeans lost in today’s USDA report. The crop is also expecting a record yield.

The USDA projected 2025-26 corn acres to total 97.3 million, up 2.1 million from the July estimate. The yield estimate was up 4.5 bu./ac. from the trade estimate at 188.8. As a result, production was up 1.037 billion bushels at 16.742 billion. Old crop carryout was down 35 million bushels at 1.305 billion, but new crop stocks were up 457 million bushels at 2.117 billion.

World carryout for new crop rose 10.46 million tonnes at 282.54 million. Brazilian and Argentine production was unchanged at 53 million and 131 million tonnes, respectively.

The U.S. corn crop was 94 per cent silking with 58 per cent in the dough stage and 14 per cent dented. Conditions were down one point at 72 per cent good to excellent.

The USDA reported a private export sale this morning of 315,488 tonnes to Mexico with 20,830 tonnes of old crop and the rest new crop.

Minneapolis spring WHEAT futures were slightly lower, while Chicago soft and Kansas City hard red were solidly in negative territory.

The projected yield for 2025-26 U.S. wheat was up 0.1 bu./ac. at 52.7 while acres were down by 100,000 at 45.4 million. Production was down by two million bushels at 1.927 billion. New crop carryout was trimmed by 21 million bushels at 869 million. World carryout for new crop wheat declined 1.44 million tonnes at 260.08 million.

The U.S. winter wheat crop was 90 per cent harvested, one point behind the average pace, while only 16 per cent of spring wheat came off the ground, six points behind the average. Conditions were up one point at 49 per cent good to excellent.

SovEcon raised its estimate for the 2025 Russian wheat crop by 1.9 million tonnes at 85.2 million.

Exports of 2025-26 European Union soft wheat totaled 1.43 million tonnes from July 1 to Aug. 10, down from 3.28 million last year.