North American grain/oilseed review: Canola posts solid gains to start week

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Monday, taking back most of Friday’s losses as speculative short covering and end-user bargain hunting provided support.

Canadian canola is trading at a discount to most other oilseeds, which was thought to be bringing in some export buying interest. Gains in Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed futures were also supportive.

Statistics Canada released ending stocks data pegging the country’s canola stocks as of July 31, 2024, at 3.1 million tonnes. That was up by 67 per cent on the year, but in line with trade expectations.

Uncertainty over Chinese demand going forward tempered the advances, as China officially launched an anti-dumping probe into Canadian canola that was first announced last week.

There were an estimated 48,126 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 34,572 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 26,688 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade posted solid gains on Monday, underpinned by chart-based positioning on ideas Friday’s losses were overdone.

Dryness concerns in South America contributed to the gains, with a lack of moisture in Brazil thought to be hampering seeding of the country’s next soybean crop. River levels are also reportedly low in Brazil and limiting movement of crops to export positions.

Condition ratings for soybeans in the United States are expected to have dipped slightly as dry weather persisted across most growing regions over the past week.

Weekly U.S. export inspections showed about 345,000 of soybeans were shipped during the past week, which was well off what moved the previous week. The USDA did announce private export sales of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China this morning.

CORN was also underpinned by dryness concerns in Brazil, although spillover from the softer tone in wheat tempered the advances.

Weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 836,000 tonnes were down slightly on the week, but up from what moved the same week the previous year.

The USDA releases it updated supply/demand estimates on Thursday, Sept. 12, and pre-report positioning was a feature.

WHEAT was pressured by increased export competition out of the Black Sea region but settled mixed.

Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reported grain exports during the marketing year to date at 7.6 million tonnes, which was about 2.5 million tonnes ahead of what moved during the same time the previous year. Most of that increase was tied to wheat.

Canadian wheat ending stocks were estimated at 4.6 million tonnes by Statistics Canada. That came in well above trade estimates, but was down on the year as the government agency raised the 2022/23 wheat carryout to 5.6 million tonnes from an earlier estimate of 3.5 million.