North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola pressured, grains lower

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market continued its descent on Tuesday following the implementation of Chinese tariffs.

On Friday, China imposed 100 per cent levies on Canadian canola oil and meal in retaliation to Canadian surcharges on Chinese-made electric vehicles, steel and aluminum last year.

One analyst called the current downturn in canola prices a “panic” with similar movement unseen in other vegetable oils.

Meanwhile, Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were lower. Crude oil made gains due to a weaker United States dollar, but was still pressured by tariff concerns and planned output hikes by OPEC+.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down one-quarter of a United States cent compared to Monday’s close.

There were 84,708 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 102,899 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 41,672 of the contracts traded.

The United States Department of Agriculture released its monthly supply/demand estimates on Tuesday, but it was business as usual at the Chicago Board of Trade.

The May CORN contract was down for the first time in five sessions on Tuesday, but not before reaching its highest price this month.

The USDA left its projected 2024-25 corn carryout estimate unchanged at 1.540 billion bushels, 24 million more than the trade’s average guess. Projected world corn ending stocks declined by 1.37 million tonnes at 288.94 million, one million tighter than expected.

Argentine and Brazilian production estimates were left unchanged at 50 million tonnes and 126 million, respectively.

Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his South American corn production forecasts unchanged at 123 million tonnes for Brazil and 46 million for Argentina.

The May SOYBEAN contract was lower for the third straight day.

As expected, the USDA left its soybean ending stock estimate unchanged at 380 million bushels. Projected world ending stocks were down 2.93 million tonnes at 121.41 million, more than three million tighter than the trade’s average guess.

Argentina’s and Brazil’s production estimates were unchanged at 49 million tonnes and 169 million, respectively.

Edible oil stocks in India totalled 1.87 million tonnes on March 1, down 14 per cent from a month earlier and the lowest total in three years. Indian edible oil imports fell to its lowest level in four years in February.

Cordonnier left his South American soybean estimates unchanged at 170 million tonnes in Brazil and 48 million in Argentina.

May contracts for all three major U.S. WHEAT varieties were in negative territory with Minneapolis spring wheat dropping below the US$6 per bushel mark.

Projected stocks for U.S. wheat were raised 25 million bushels at 819 million, 22 million more than the trade’s average guess. World carryout was projected at 260.08 million tonnes, up 2.52 million and more than trade expectations.

The Canadian production estimate stayed the same at 34.96 million tonnes.

Wheat ratings in Oklahoma improved by 11 points from the week before at 46 per cent good to excellent as of March 4, while Kansas declined two points at 52 per cent and Texas dropped six points at 28 per cent. Nearly all of South Dakota and Nebraska are under moderate to severe drought, while most of Kansas was abnormally dry at best.

India’s ag ministry said it expects a record wheat crop of 115.4 million tonnes in 2025.

Coceral cut its soft wheat forecast for the E.U./U.K. by 3.2 million tonnes at 137.2 million.