North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola rebounds, grains drop

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market bounced back on Wednesday, helped out by a weaker Canadian dollar.

Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed were up, while Malaysian palm oil was down. Crude oil was also lower, pressured by a stronger United States dollar.

One analyst said Chicago soyoil’s recent rise could potentially start a rally that would spill over into canola. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its monthly supply/demand estimates on Friday.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down one-quarter of a U.S. cent compared to Tuesday’s close.

There were 42,887 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 35,712 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 23,018 of the contracts traded.

WHEAT had the largest losses at the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday after two consecutive positive sessions despite adverse winter weather in United States wheat-growing areas.

Ahead of Friday’s monthly supply/demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the trade expects U.S. wheat ending stocks at 799 million bushels. That would be up four million bushels from the USDA’s December projection.

World wheat carryout is projected to be down 20,000 tonnes from December at 257.86 million.

Ukraine’s wheat exports in December fell by more than half compared to the year before at 789,000 tonnes. The sharp drop was primarily due to a new export price regime implemented in the country last month.

South Korea purchased 65,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat from the U.S., while Jordan tendered for 120,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat.

Like wheat, CORN also declined after two straight days of gains.

The trade estimated the U.S. corn carryout for 2024-25 at 1.675 billion bushels, down 63 million from the December estimate.

World corn ending stocks are to drop by 1.64 million tonnes at 294.8 million.

The Brazilian corn crop production estimate is expected to be raised 50,000 tonnes at 127.05 million, while Argentina’s crop would be down 460,000 tonnes at 50.54 million.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production for the week ended Jan. 3 averaged 1.102 million barrels per day, down 9,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks went up 509,000 barrels at 24.148 million.

Three South Korean importers purchased a combined 337,000 tonnes of corn overnight from unknown origins.

Ukrainian corn exports in December dropped 612,000 tonnes from the year before at 2.5 million.

The March SOYBEAN contract showed little movement on Wednesday, but it surpassed the US$10 per bushel level before settling lower.

U.S. soybean ending stocks were estimated to be 457 million bushels, down 13 million from the USDA’s December estimate.

The world soybean carryout was projected to be 132.2 million tonnes, up 330,000 tonnes from December.

Argentine soybean production was slated to be 51.91 million tonnes, 90,000 tonnes lower than in December. Brazilian soybean production is to be at 170.28 million tonnes, up 1.28 million from last month’s guess.

Dry weather persists in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, the country’s top soybean producing state. Meanwhile, rains are disrupting the harvest in central regions of Brazil and in Argentina, rains may limit damage to its corn and soybean crops.

The USDA reported a sale of 120,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations this morning.