North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola retreats, grains bounce back

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market declined further Thursday due to tariff-related pressure despite making gains earlier in the day.

One analyst said the rise could have been a “dead cat bounce”, a brief respite before resuming their downturn. Another said shifting basis values have caused the canola market to be “paralyzed”.

Statistics Canada reported the country’s canola crush in 2024 was a record 11.37 million tonnes. Canola oil exports were at 3.5 million tonnes, up 10.7 per cent from 2023.

Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed were lower while Malaysian palm oil was higher. Crude oil was in the red due to economic uncertainty.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down two-tenths of a United States cent compared to Wednesday’s close.

There were 64,331 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 72,833 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 33,140 of the contracts traded.

All three major United States WHEAT varieties were higher at the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday with Kansas City hard red wheat showing the largest gains. The May Minneapolis spring wheat contract ended the day above US$6 per bushel.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s export sales report for the week ended March 6 showed old crop wheat greatly surpassing trade expectations at 783,400 tonnes. In addition, 82,600 tonnes of new crop wheat were also sold for export.

The U.S. Southern Plains, most notably Texas and portions of Oklahoma and Kansas, should see hot and dry weather this coming week.

IKAR trimmed its Russian wheat export forecast by 1.5 million tonnes at 41 million.

France cut soft wheat exports outside the European Union at 3.2 million tonnes, down 69 per cent from the previous year and a record-low for this century due to heavy rains.

Algeria purchased between 500,000 to 650,000 tonnes of wheat in a tender on Wednesday.

The May SOYBEAN contract ended a four-day downturn after briefly dipping below US$10/bu.

Export sales for old crop U.S. soybeans were 751,700 tonnes, just above trade expectations, as well as 43,100 tonnes of new crop. Old crop soymeal sales were just below the lower end of trade expectations at 184,800 tonnes, to go with 1,600 tonnes of new crop soymeal sold. Old crop soyoil sales were at 68,500 tonnes.

Conab raised its Brazilian soybean production forecast by 1.36 million tonnes at 167.37 million.

In Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange cut the forecast for its country by one million tonnes at 46.5 million.

China is expected to import a record-breaking 31.3 million tonnes of soybeans from April to June this year.

May CORN ended Thursday higher after being in the red over the past two days.

The USDA reported today that export sales for old crop U.S. corn totaled 967,300 tonnes. Meanwhile, export sales for new crop corn totaled 13,400 tonnes, all going to Honduras.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration showed average daily ethanol production for the week ended March 7 was down 31,000 barrels per day at 1.062 million. Ethanol stocks rose 87,000 barrels at 27.376 million.

Conab raised its Brazilian corn production estimate by 750,000 tonnes at 122.76 million.

The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its corn production estimate for Argentina by 1.5 million tonnes at 44.5 million.