North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola rises, grains mixed after USDA report

WINNIPEG -– Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange broke through their resistance levels on Thursday despite weakness in vegetable oils and a stronger Canadian dollar.

The United States Department of Agriculture released its monthly oilseed report earlier today which raised exports and trimmed ending stocks for old and new crop Canadian canola. An announcement from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on biofuels is expected sometime before the end of July.

An analyst said upcoming rains in Alberta this weekend should pull prices back, but more rain would be needed to put an end to the oilseed’s rally.

Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed were down while Malaysian palm oil was up. Crude oil was steady to lower after the U.S. pulled personnel out of the Middle East due to ongoing tensions in the region.

At mid-afternoon, the loonie was up one-third of a U.S. cent compared to Wednesday’s close.

There were 85,620 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 32,738 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 23,953 of the contracts traded.

The USDA released its June supply/demand estimates earlier today, showing very few changes except for trimmed ending stocks for corn and wheat.

The July CORN contract continued its choppy trade on Thursday, remaining rangebound since the start of June.

The USDA raised projected exports for 2024-25 corn by 50 million bushels, dropping ending stocks to 1.365 billion bushels, below the average trade guess. New crop carryout was also down 50 million at 1.75 billion bushels. World ending stocks for old crop corn were down 2.25 million tonnes at 285.04 million, while new crop carryout were 2.6 million tonnes lower at 275.24 million.

The USDA also left Argentina’s and Brazil’s projected 2025-26 corn output unchanged at 50 million and 130 million tonnes, respectively.

CONAB estimated Brazil’s total corn crop at 128.25 million, up 1.38 million tonnes from its previous call.

A total of 791,327 tonnes of old crop corn sold for export during the week ended June 5, down 16 per cent from last week and a nine-week low. There were 29,600 tonnes of net sales reductions for new crop.

Minneapolis spring WHEAT futures were higher, while those for the Chicago soft and Kansas City hard varieties continued to decline.

Old crop U.S. wheat ending stocks were projected by the USDA to be 891 million bushels. New crop ending stocks were down 25 million bushels at 898 million, well below trade estimates, due to a corresponding increase in exports. World carryout for old crop was 1.23 million tonnes lower at 263.98 million, while that for new crop was down 2.97 million tonnes at 262.76 million.

Old crop U.S. wheat export sales were 184,000 tonnes last week, while those for new crop, which started June 1, totaled 388,900 tonnes.

Strategie Grains estimated the 2025-26 European Union wheat crop at 130.7 million tonnes, up 900,000 from the previous forecast. Coceral pegged combined EU/United Kingdom wheat production at 143.1 million, up 5.9 million from its previous estimate.

July SOYBEANS had their second straight loss and fell to their lowest level since June 4.

Projected old and new crop ending stocks for U.S. soybeans were left unchanged at 350 million and 298 million bushels, respectively. World carryout for old crop was up 1.02 million tonnes at 124.2 million, while new crop carryout was up 970,000 tonnes at 125.3 million.

The USDA left Brazil’s and Argentina’s soybean production figures unchanged at 169 million and 49 million tonnes, respectively.

CONAB raised its production estimate for Brazilian soybeans by 1.26 million tonnes at 169.6 million.

A marketing-year low of 61,400 tonnes of old crop U.S. soybeans were sold for export last week, as well as 58,100 tonnes of new crop. In addition, 214,500 tonnes of old crop soymeal and 46,500 tonnes of new crop were also sold. Soyoil export sales totaled 5,600 tonnes for old crop and new crop net sales reductions at 1,500 tonnes.