North American grain/oilseed review: Canola rises with soy complex
By Phil Franz-Warkentin
Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Monday, seeing a continuation of Friday’s rally as ongoing gains in the Chicago soy complex provided spillover support.
March canola surpassed its 200-day moving average on Friday and held above that key chart point on Monday, which was supportive from a technical standpoint as speculators continued to cover short positions and put on new longs.
The soybean market remained underpinned by last week’s cut to the United Sates 2024/25 production by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Much-anticipated guidance on biofuel tax credits were also supportive for soyoil. However, uncertainty over the threat of U.S. tariffs on Canadian canola oil imports limited the spillover support on the canola market.
There were an estimated 67,767 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 105,603 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 37,096 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Monday, seeing follow-through buying interest after Friday’s one-bushel per acre cut to United States soybean yields and tighter-than-expected ending stocks projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Forecasts calling for hot and dry conditions across Argentina over the next week were also supportive, with the heat wave cutting into the yield prospects for the country’s soybean and corn crops.
The USDA reported flash sales of 198,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China this morning.
Weekly US export inspections showed 1.35 million tonnes of soybeans exported during the past week, with year-to-date shipments of 31.3 million tonnes up 22 per cent from the same time a year ago.
CORN futures were also underpinned by Friday’s bullish report and weather concerns in Argentina.
Weekly U.S. corn export inspections came in at about 445,000 tonnes, which was below expectations. However, year-to-date exports are still running ahead of last year’s pace.
WHEAT was largely a follower on Monday, finding spillover support from the recent gains in soybeans and corn. Tighter U.S. corn ending stocks projections in Friday’s USDA report were supportive, raising ideas that more wheat may need to go into livestock rations.
Weekly U.S. wheat export inspections of 289,000 tonnes were down on the week but above what moved the same week a year ago. Year-to-date U.S. wheat exports at 13 million tonnes were up about 25 per cent on the year.
