North American grain/oilseed review: Canola strengthens Tuesday

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Tuesday, as solid end user demand and chart-based positioning provided support.

Cash basis levels across the Prairies and at the West Coast have improved lately, which an analyst saw as a sign that recent weakness in the futures was tied more to speculative selling than the fundamentals.

Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed futures were stronger on the day, providing additional support. However, soybeans were weaker.

Uncertainty over looming tariffs from the United States, set to go into effect on April 2, remained a bearish influence in the background.

There were 42,611 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 28,107 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 23,152 of the contracts traded.

WHEAT futures in the United States were lower across the board on Tuesday, with movement towards peace between Russia and Ukraine behind some of the selling.

Russia and Ukraine have reportedly reached separate agreements with the U.S. to ensure safe navigation through the Black Sea while also banning attacks on energy facilities by the two counties. The U.S. is said to have promised to help restore Russian access to grain and fertilizer markets as part of the deal.

Analysts SovEcon cut their call on Russia’s 2024/25 wheat exports to 40.7 million tonnes on Tuesday, from an earlier forecast of 42.2 million. However, they upped their estimate for new crop movement by 200,000 tonnes, to 39.1 million.

Weekly crop ratings for winter wheat in Kansas improved one point in the good to excellent category, now at 49 per cent

SOYBEAN futures in Chicago were lower on Tuesday, as uncertainty over looming U.S. tariffs, set to go into effect on April 2, and resulting retaliation from U.S. trading partners remained a bearish influence.

The likelihood of easing Chinese demand, at the same time as more Brazilian supplies become available, contributed to the losses.

The USDA’s prospective plantings report will be released next week Monday, with early expectations for a cut to U.S. soybean acres from last year and an increase in corn. Quarterly stocks data will also be released at that time

CORN futures were pressured by those increased acreage expectations, with the rising U.S. dollar and relatively favourable South American growing conditions also weighing on values.