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North American grain/oilseed review: Canola stronger Monday

| 2 min read

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

 

Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Monday, recovering from overnight losses to see a continuation of last week’s correction off nearby lows.

Tightening supply projections and solid end user demand remained supportive from a fundamental standpoint. Statistics Canada releases updated production estimates on Thursday Dec. 5, with most market participants expecting the crop will be revised down by a million tonnes or more from the 18.98 million tonnes forecast in September.

Gains in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil provided spillover support, although the Chicago soy complex was weaker.

Australia’s agriculture department ABARES estimated the country’s canola crop at 5.6 million tonnes. That was up by 100,000 tonnes from the September forecast, but still down eight per cent on the year.

There were an estimated 67,997 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 53,665 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 39,808 of the contracts traded.

 

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Monday, as favourable South American crop conditions weighed on values.

Several Brazilian analysts released updated production estimates, pegging the country’s current soybean crop at anywhere from 166.2 million to a record 172.2 million tonnes. That compares with the 153 million tonnes grown in 2023/24, according to United States Department of Agriculture data.

Weekly U.S. soybean export inspections came in at about 2.1 million tonnes, with crop-year-to-date shipments of 21.8 million tonnes running about 16 per cent ahead of last year’s pace.

The USDA announced private sales of 134,000 tonnes of soybeans to China.

 

CORN futures traded within a few cents of unchanged, with the bias lower in the most-active months at the close.

Weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 936,000 tonnes were down seven per cent on the week, although year-to-date shipments of 11.1 million tonnes are up 31 per cent on the year and the largest in six years.

 

WHEAT was pressured by stiff competition out of the Black Sea and Argentina. Rising production estimates out of Australia were also bearish

Australia’s ABARES pegged the country’s 2024/25 wheat crop at 31.9 million tonnes. That was up by 100,000 tonnes from an earlier estimate and 23 per cent above last year’s crop.