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North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola surges, CBOT grains down

| 3 min read

WINNIPEG — The ICE Futures canola market rose sharply on Monday, correcting itself from contract lows on Friday and after the release of new data from Statistics Canada.

One analyst expected StatCan’s new production figure for canola was lifting prices, but he also raised the possibility of increased buying from China.

StatCan cut its 2024-25 canola production estimate by 520,000 tonnes at 18.98 million, down 1.1 per cent on the year but still above the five-year average of 18.34 million tonnes.

Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed were up while Malaysian palm oil was down. Meanwhile, crude oil gained more than US$1 per barrel.

Chart-based positioning on ideas Friday’s losses were overdone contributed to the gains, as canola was said to be looking cheap compared to other oilseeds.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down less than one-tenth of a United States cent compared to Friday’s close.

There were 58,100 canola contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 59,100 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 31,162 of the contracts traded.

United States WHEAT futures corrected themselves on Monday, after a Russian attack on a Ukrainian grain vessel in the Black Sea on Friday.

Statistics Canada (StatCan) released its model-based principal field crop estimates and trimmed 2024/25 all wheat production to 34.29 million tonnes from 34.73 million in August, but the new estimate was 4.1 per cent higher than in 2023/24.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported export inspections of 556,901 tonnes of wheat during the week ended Sept. 12, down 10.3 per cent from the previous week but up 31.77 per cent from last year.

Forecasts for the next seven days show rains from Minnesota down to Kansas.

Ukraine has exported 8.7 million tonnes of grain in 2024-25 as of Sept. 16, according to the country’s ag ministry. Included were 4.8 million tonnes of wheat, as Ukraine plans to curb total wheat exports at 16.2 million this marketing year.

The December CORN contract ended its three-day rally on Monday but was still slightly below its highest price since the start of August.

StatCan estimated 2024-25 corn production at 15.17 million tonnes, down 1.6 per cent from one year earlier.

U.S. corn shipments of 521,118 tonnes fell 38 per cent from the week before and dropped 23 per cent from last year.

Ukraine has exported 2.5 million tonnes of corn so far in 2024-25.

AgRural reported that 19 per cent of the first corn crop in Brazil’s centre-south region has been planted.

November SOYBEANS lost ground in consecutive sessions for the first time since mid-August, but the price remained rangebound, as it had been since last month.

StatCan raised 2024/25 soybean production to slightly below 7.20 million tonnes from 7.15 million in August, compared to 6.98 million in 2023/24.

In total, 401,287 tonnes of U.S. soybeans were shipped for export, up 10 per cent from last week but down 6.7 per cent from last year.

The USDA announced the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations on Monday.

The U.S. National Oilseeds Processors Association released its August crush report on Monday at 158 million bushels, well below the trade estimate of 171.33 million, down 13.6 per cent from the month before and the lowest August crush in seven years. Soyoil stocks were down 24 per cent from July at 1.14 billion pounds.

Water levels on the Mississippi River were higher due to rains from Hurricane Francine, but may become lower later in the week.