North American grain/oilseed review: Canola up as production revised down

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Thursday, finding support from Statistics Canada’s updated production estimates.

StatCan lowered its call on the 2024/25 canola crop by 1.1 million tonnes from September, pegging it at 17.8 million tonnes. That was below average trade guesses and compares with 19.2 million tonnes in 2023/24.

Gains in Chicago soyoil provided additional spillover support, with European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil also up on the day.

However, the upside was tempered by reports Chinese buyers were scaling back purchases of Canadian canola due to concerns over looming anti-dumping duties. China has been the largest export destination for Canadian canola so far this marketing year, but much of that business was thought to be front-loaded.

There were an estimated 69,071 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 48,584 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 47,950 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Thursday, with some support coming from Canada’s smaller-than-expected canola crop and resulting expectations for tightening global vegetable oil supplies.

However, while Statistics Canada revised canola production lower in its latest report, the country’s soybean crop was up 8.4 per cent on the year at 7.6 million tonnes.

Weekly United States soybean export sales came in at the high end of trade guesses, at 2.3 million tonnes, with an additional 136,000 tonne sale to China also reported this morning.

Relativelty favourable South American crop prospects weighed on values, tempering the upside.

CORN futures were supported by solid weekly export sales. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported weekly corn export sales at 1.7 million tonnes — the highest level in four weeks.

Canada’s corn crop was pegged at 15.3 million tonnes, which was inline with pre-report expectations and down only half a per cent on the year.

WHEAT was firmer, seeing a corrective bounce off nearby lows.

Canadian wheat production came in just shy of 35 million tonnes, which was up from the previous estimate of 34.3 million tonnes and 6.1 per cent above last year’s crop.

Weekly U.S. wheat export sales came in at 378,000 tonnes, up slightly on the week.