North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola up, CBOT grains mixed
Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market continued to expand its gains on Tuesday with help from most comparable oils.
Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed were both on the rise, while crude oil was also higher as traders await the United States Federal Reserve’s key interest rate decision on Wednesday. However, Malaysian palm oil was lower after India implemented a new 20 per cent import tax on edible oils.
Talk of increased end user buying interest after the recent losses contributed to the gains, with some analysts expecting the November contract could be heading back towards C$600 per tonne.
At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was steady compared to Monday’s close. Statistics Canada reported today the country’s annual inflation rate dropped to two per cent in August, the Bank of Canada’s target rate.
There were 31,930 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 58,100 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 31,162 of the contracts traded.
December CORN at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) moved up for the sixth time in eight sessions on Tuesday, nearly recovering all of Monday’s losses.
The United States Department of Agriculture reported the U.S. corn crop was 85 per cent dented as of Sept. 16, one point above the five-year average. The crop was also reported at 45 per cent mature and nine per cent harvested, both above their respective averages. Crop ratings improved by one point from the past week at 65 per cent good to excellent.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his average U.S. corn yield estimate unchanged at 182.5 bushels per acre, equal to 15.09 billion bushels of production.
Conab raised its 2024-25 Brazilian corn production estimate to 119.8 million tonnes, up 3.6 per cent from the year before, with the safrinha crop up 4.1 per cent at 94.02 million.
The French ag ministry raised its call for the country’s corn crop at 14.39 million tonnes, up 11 per cent from last year.
SOYBEAN prices improved for the first time in three sessions on Tuesday, but gains were minimal.
The USDA reported that 44 per cent of the U.S. soybean crop has dropped its leaves, seven points faster than normal, with double the average harvest pace at six per cent. Conditions were down one point at 64 per cent good to excellent.
Cordonnier cut his average yield forecast for the U.S. crop by 0.5 bu./ac. at 52.5 with production at 4.52 billion bushels. He left his Brazilian soybean production estimate unchanged at 165 million tonnes.
Conab projected its upcoming soybean crop at 166.28 million tonnes, up 12.8 per cent from the previous year.
India implemented a new 20 per cent import tax on edible oils, which was put into effect retroactively on Sept. 14.
WHEAT prices saw movement on both sides of unchanged, but only within two cents on each side.
So far, 14 per cent of the U.S. winter wheat crop has been planted, while 92 per cent of the U.S. spring wheat crop was harvested, up one and two points from their averages respectively.
France’s ag ministry cut its soft wheat production forecast by 540,000 tonnes at 25.78 million, its smallest crop since 1986.
SovEcon raised its forecast for Russian wheat by 400,000 tonnes at 82.9 million.
Japan is tendering for 123,000 tonnes of U.S., Canadian and Australian wheat, with 66,000 coming from the U.S.