North American grain/oilseed review: Canola weaker as U.S. tariffs loom

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was weaker at Monday’s close, as investors took a “risk off” approach ahead of United States tariffs set to come into effect on Tuesday.

Losses in the Chicago soy complex contributed to the selling pressure in canola.

The managed money net long position in canola hit a record large level in the latest weekly data, leaving the market open to profit-taking.

Tightening supply projections and the need to ration demand remained supportive on the other side, helping temper the declines.

There were 36,985 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 37,630 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 13,760 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker Monday, as concerns mounted over United States trade policies and the likelihood of retaliation from other countries if tariffs come into effect on Tuesday. Mounting South American harvest pressure contributing to the declines as values fell below some nearby support levels.

Additional 10 per cent U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are to take effect on March 4, barring another last-minute change of mind from U.S. President Donald Trump. China is a major buyer of U.S. soybeans and is expected to retaliate in kind.

Last week’s acreage estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s annual outlook forum remained somewhat supportive for soybeans, as the agency predicted a three million acre cut to U.S. soybean plantings this spring compared to last year.

Weekly U.S. inspections data showed just under 700,000 tonnes of soybeans were exported in the past week, which was down from the previous week.

CORN futures were also pressured by bearish technical signals and trade uncertainty.

Last week the USDA projected U.S. corn plantings in 2025 at 94 million acres, which would be up by about three and a half million from last year.

Weekly U.S. corn export inspections were solid at 1.35 million tonnes.

WHEAT was down across the board, as traders showed a reduced appetite for risk. However, broad weakness in the U.S. dollar internationally was somewhat supportive.

European wheat futures hit their lowest levels in over three months, contributing to the softer tone.

Weekly U.S. wheat export inspections of about 390,000 tonnes were in line with the week ago level.