North American grain/oilseed review: Ceasefire weighs on canola futures

By Phil Franz-Warkentin

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was weaker Tuesday as a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran, and the resulting losses in crude oil, weighed on agricultural markets.

Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were all down on the day. Chart-based selling contributed to the declines, with canola testing some key technical support levels.

Relatively favourable North American weather was another bearish influence, with parts of the Prairies receiving welcome rains.

Statistics Canada will release updated seeded area estimates on Friday, with strength in the canola market since the last report was released in March expected to lead to an increase in canola area.

There were 66,761 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 60,681 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 39,974 of the contracts traded.

CBOT soybeans fall amid good weather, Mideast uncertainty

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker Tuesday. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel appeared to be holding, with resulting losses in crude oil spilling into the grains and oilseeds.

Good U.S. crop weather was also bearish, with warm temperatures and adequate moisture in the forecast. Soybean condition ratings in the U.S. held steady at 66 per cent good to excellent in the latest weekly report.

CORN touched fresh contract lows, with large old crop supplies and relatively favourable weather for the new crop weighed on prices.

The U.S. corn crop was rated 70 per cent good to excellent in the latest weekly report. That was down two points on the week, but still the best rating for this time of year in five years.

Expectations for an upward revision to U.S. corn plantings when the U.S. Department of Agriculture releases updated acreage estimates on June 30 also weighed on values.

Solid export demand provided some support. The USDA reported flash sales of 630,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico, with most to be delivered during the 2025/26 marketing year.

WHEAT futures were lower Tuesday, as seasonal harvest pressure and a lack of major weather concerns weighed on prices.

U.S. wheat condition ratings dipped in the latest weekly crop report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Winter wheat and spring wheat both lost three points in the good to excellent category, now coming in at 49 per cent and 54 per cent respectively.

The winter wheat harvest was 19 per cent complete, which was slightly off expectations but up nine points on the week.