North American Grain/Oilseed Review: July canola rebounds, grains mixed

The July contract on the ICE canola futures was higher on Wednesday, while new crop positions were slightly lower with a downturn in comparable oils.

Canola is “still undervalued a little bit,” an analyst commented, noting there’s the possibility for a counter-rally or a “dead cat bounce.” However, another analyst said he doesn’t expect any breakout on the upside.

Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were down. Crude oil fell by more than US$2 per barrel due to recession fears with April becoming its worst performing month since November 2021.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was up three-tenths of a U.S. cent compared to Tuesday’s close.

There were 35,359 canola contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 45,640 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 14,892 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEANS showed more weakness as contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped for the third time in four sessions. The July contract also fell to its lowest level in two weeks.

The United States Department of Agriculture reported on Tuesday a private export sale of 110,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the current marketing year.

Argentina’s ag ministry said soybean sales are at its slowest pace in 11 years as producers hold on to their crop due to a slower harvest and uncertainty over the country’s exchange rate.

Brazil’s Supreme Court has allowed the state of Mato Grosso to withdraw tax incentives for major grain traders who signed onto a “soy moratorium”, a pact prohibiting soybean purchases from areas affected by Amazon deforestation after 2008. Mato Grosso produces one-third of Brazil’s soybeans.

Chicago soft and Minneapolis spring WHEAT made gains, while prices for Kansas City hard red had small declines.

Weather forecasts are showing heavy rains from Kansas to Texas next week, with amounts ranging from 25 to 125 millimetres.

South Korea purchased 65,000 tonnes of feed wheat for September delivery, sourced from either South America or South Africa.

SovEcon raised its Russian wheat export estimate for 2024-25 by 200,000 tonnes at 40.7 million, while the 2025-26 estimate was up by 600,000 tonnes at 39.7 million.

The USDA’s attaché in Australia projected the country’s wheat crop at 31 million tonnes in 2025-26, more than three million less than in 2024-25, but above the 10-year average.

Ukraine’s ag ministry said its April wheat exports were down 61 per cent from last year at 1.46 million tonnes.

July CORN recovered some of Tuesday’s losses, but not before briefly dropping to its lowest level since April 4.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported average daily ethanol production for the week ended April 25 at 1.04 million barrels per day, up 7,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were down 92,000 barrels at 25.89 million, the lowest since January.

The USDA reported Wednesday a private export sale of 120,000 tonnes of corn to unknown destinations during the current marketing year.

South Korean importers tendered for a total of 263,000 tonnes overnight with the corn originating from the Pacific Northwest for delivery this summer.

Precipitation will be light next week in the U.S. Northern Plains as well as northern parts of the U.S. Corn Belt.

Ukraine said its April corn exports totaled 750,000 tonnes, down 56 per cent from last year.