North American Grain/Oilseed Review: July canola, wheat rise highest

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm – The July contract on the ICE Futures canola market made a large gain on Tuesday, surpassing the C$720 per tonne level before closing below it. New crop contracts were modestly higher.

As canola takes a record long position, an analyst said demand for the oilseed must slow down. He estimated 22 million tonnes would be needed in 2025-26 to meet demand. However, United States biofuel policies and potential Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola seed could upend the market.

European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were higher, while Chicago soyoil and crude oil were steady.

At mid-afternoon, the loonie was up one-quarter of a U.S. cent compared to Friday’s close.

There were 47,983 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Friday when 48,505 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 22,220 of the contracts traded.

WHEAT contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade received a boost on Tuesday after the United States Department of Agriculture reported a small decline in winter wheat crop ratings.

The USDA reported winter wheat conditions slipped two points from the previous week at 52 per cent good to excellent. Also, 64 per cent of the crop was headed, six points ahead of the average.

Spring wheat planting progress in the U.S. was at 82 per cent, well ahead of the average pace of 65 per cent. Emergence was 11 points ahead at 45 per cent.

A total of 423,785 tonnes of U.S. wheat were exported during the week ended May 15, up 4.6 per cent from one week earlier and up 85 per cent from the same week last year. U.S. marketing year exports are at 20.7 million tonnes, up 15.6 per cent from last year.

Temperatures in China’s Heban province, known as the country’s granary, reached 40 degrees Celsius on Tuesday, just as winter crops start to fill before harvest.

Russia’s Rostov region, one of the country’s largest grain-producing areas, declared a state of emergency on Monday ahead of high temperatures and a lack of rain in the coming months.

The July CORN contract had its biggest one-day gain since April 11, reaching its highest level since May 12.

The U.S. corn crop was 78 per cent planted, in line with the average trade estimate and up five points from the average pace. Emergence was 10 points ahead of the average at 50 per cent.

U.S. corn exports totaled 1.719 million tonnes last week, up 32.2 per cent from the previous week and up 39.1 per cent from last year. Marketing year shipments were 45.54 million tonnes, an increase of 29.2 per cent from the same week last year.

Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn production estimate by two million tonnes at 129 million tonnes, while the Argentine estimate was unchanged at 50 million.

July SOYBEANS made modest gains for the second straight session on Tuesday.

U.S. soybean planting progress was at 66 per cent, up 16 points from last year and up 13 points from the average pace. Emergence was at 34 per cent, up nine points from last year and up 11 points from the average.

A total of 217,842 tonnes of U.S. soybeans were exported last week, down 50.4 per cent from the week before and up 13.3 per cent from last year. Marketing year shipments were 44.13 million tonnes, up 11.1 per cent from the year before.

China said its soybean imports from Brazil dropped 22.2 per cent from the year before and U.S. soybean exports for April fell 43.7 per cent from the same period last year.

Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates unchanged at 169 million and 50 million tonnes, respectively.

Areas north of Buenos Aires will see more rain next weekend after recent heavy rainfalls caused flooding, triggered evacuations and threatened corn and soybean crops.