North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Nearby canola rises, grains weaker

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola futures were stronger in nearby contracts after Canada avoided additional levies under United States President Donald Trump’s new tariff scheme announced on Wednesday. However, the new crop contracts lost their gains from earlier in the session to finish lower.

Canola was spared tariffs as it’s covered under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, an analyst said, pointing out that “the U.S. needs Canadian canola oil more than ever” as used cooking oil from China was banned by the U.S. in January. Should Canada and China come to an agreement regarding the latter’s tariffs on canola meal and oil, canola futures could rise further, but there is speculation that the seed could be levied in the coming months. The May contract remained above its major moving averages, which helped to underpin values.

Global markets saw major selloffs, with European rapeseed, Chicago soyoil and Malaysian palm oil sharply lower. Crude oil lost more than US$4 per barrel.

Canola’s gains were limited by the Canadian dollar, which rose more than one U.S. cent compared to Wednesday’s close at mid-afternoon.

There were 86,296 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 54,199 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 50,738 of the contracts traded.

Nearly a day after United States President Donald Trump announced a new global tariff scheme, grain prices at the Chicago Board of Trade saw varying levels of weakness on Thursday.

The May SOYBEAN contract fell back on Thursday, wiping out the gains made on Tuesday. However, the price remained above the US$10 per bushel mark for the fifth straight session.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported 410,200 tonnes of 2024-25 U.S. soybeans were sold for export for the week ended March 28, up 21 per cent from the week before. Sales of 3,300 tonnes of new crop soybeans were also reported, mostly to Japan.

Export sales of old crop U.S. soymeal hit a marketing-year low of 93,500 tonnes, down 44 per cent from the previous week and below trade expectations.

There were also 13,800 tonnes of old crop soyoil sold, down 69 per cent from the previous week, as well as 9,100 tonnes of new crop soyoil to Mexico.

The U.S. exported 3.07 million tonnes of soybeans in February, down 41 per cent from January and down 42 per cent from February last year. As well, 1.125 million tonnes of soymeal and 136,250 tonnes of soyoil were exported.

The USDA announced a sale of 135,000 tonnes of old crop soymeal to the Philippines on Wednesday.

The May CORN contract had its second straight loss and fell below the US$4.50/bu. level for the first time in three days before ending Thursday above the mark.

The USDA reported 1.173 million tonnes of old crop corn sold for export last week, up 13 per cent from the previous week. Mexico, which was also largely exempt from additional U.S. tariffs like Canada, was the second-largest customer behind South Korea. In addition, a larger-than-expected 165,000 tonnes of new crop corn were sold to Japan.

The U.S. Census reported February corn exports of 6.03 million tonnes, down 2.1 per cent from January and up 12.3 per cent from February last year.

Hot and dry weather persists in southern Brazil, while planting in the southeastern U.S. Corn Belt will be delayed due to heavy rains.

The USDA also raised its estimate for 2025-26 corn production in the Philippines by 0.6 per cent at 8.2 million tonnes, with corn consumption for feed up two per cent at 7.75 million tonnes.

As Kansas City hard red winter WHEAT made small gains, Chicago soft wheat and Minneapolis spring wheat were lower.

The USDA said 340,000 tonnes of old crop U.S. wheat were sold for export, well above the previous week’s total and just above the higher end of trade expectations. Also, 95,200 tonnes of new crop wheat were sold for export.

The Northern Delta and the Ohio River Valley will see between 200 to 300 millimetres of rain from now until Sunday.

The U.S. exported 1.765 million tonnes of wheat in February, 34 per cent above January but down 4.5 per cent from last year.

The USDA’s attaché in India estimated a record-breaking wheat crop in that country at 115 million tonnes.