AGCanadaTV: In case you missed it; your national ag news recap for Oct. 3, 2025
Faster growth for farmland values in first half of 2025
Canadian farmland values rose by an average of six per cent in the first half of 2025 according to a new report from Farm Credit Canada.
That’s an acceleration over last year, which saw a 5.5 per cent gain in value in the first six months.
Buyers continue to invest despite lower commodity prices, said FCC chief economist JP Gervais. This shows long-term confidence in the agriculture sector and the limited supply of land.
Overall, sale prices per acre increased modestly, said FCC. Provinces that had previously seen strong growth saw softening farmland prices, while regions that had seen more modest growth are seeing solid gains. Overall, the market seems to be stabilizing.
Manitoba led all provinces on gains with farmland values rising 11.2 per cent in the first half of the year. Alberta and Saskatchewan saw growth near the national average. British Columbia and Ontario land values were flat.
Canada’s general economic growth in decline
Also from Farm Credit Canada – chief economist J.P. Gervais painted a somewhat grim view of Canada’s short-term economic sustainability during a recent update. He predicted that Canada is headed for its third and possibly fourth year of sub-two per cent growth.
Gervais put overall economic growth in 2025 at 1.1 per cent compared to the Bank of Canada’s 1.3 per cent. He also suggested Canada would see one per cent growth in 2026.
Farmers shouldn’t get to comfortable with their relative tariff-free status in relation to the U.S., Gervais said. There’s still plenty of uncertainty as to the future of trade between the two countries. This will make businesses a little reluctant to invest.
Gervais praised the federal Building Canada Act, which is intended to fast-track the building of Canadian infrastructure. He said it will reverberate across industries, including agriculture, though that stimulus will take time to come through.
StatCan sticks to model-based crop forecast
Statistics Canada’s model-based production estimates are under scrutiny, but the agency is standing by its methods.
Industry experts have flagged StatCan’s August crop forecast as heavily underestimating the coming crop. The estimates are based on the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index, or NDVI.
Peter Watts is managing director of the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre. He said the forecast of 8.23 million tonnes of barley production is out of step with reality. It might not take into account a yield boost from widespread late-July rain. He thought nine million tonnes is a more reasonable production number.
Likewise, analyst Chuck Penner forecasted 3.75 million tonnes of pea production in what he called a conservative estimate. That compares to StatCan’s 3.56 million tonnes.
John Seay is head of StatCan’s crop reporting unit. He said he still has faith in the model, which he said did adjust for the effects of late-summer rains. Projections for big crops like canola and spring wheat also appear to line up with provincial reporting.
The next production estimate will be based on farmer surveys.
