AccuWeather’s 2021-22 Prairie weather forecast

AccuWeather – The Canadian Prairies could see a colder than normal winter this year, according to the latest seasonal forecast from AccuWeather predicting a return of the Polar Vortex.

The climatological phenomenon known as La Niña is present far out in the Pacific Ocean once again this year and is sure to play a key role in the overall weather pattern this coming winter, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Brett Anderson.

During last year’s winter, which was also influenced by La Niña conditions, the country had abnormally high temperatures, averaging as much as 22 degrees Celsius above average in January. Yet come February, that trend flipped, with cities such as Edmonton and Winnipeg recording some of their lowest temperatures in recorded history.

This year, Anderson said similarly frosty conditions could make a biting return, although some areas of the country could be spared.

La Niña = Cold + Stormy

During a La Niña phase, which occurs on average every three to five years, sea surface temperatures in the open waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean dip to below-average levels. By mid-October, a La Niña phase had officially developed, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in a news release. That effect on Canada, particularly in the western half of the country, will likely send temperatures falling even lower than they do during the average winter.

This is due to the amplified polar jet stream, which can usher in colder air and more frequent storms. According to Anderson, that’s exactly what residents in the country’s western provinces should be prepared for.

“The upcoming winter is expected to be fairly stormy from southern British Columbia through the Canadian Rockies with many opportunities for significant rainfall and strong winds along the coast,” Anderson said. “Abundant snowfall is expected throughout much of ski country from the Coastal Range of British Columbia through the Rockies of western Alberta.”

Polar vortex to plunge down into Canadian Prairies

In the central portions of Canada, La Niña’s frigid ripple effects will mix with the harsh cold unleashed by blasts from the polar vortex, particularly in the Prairies.

According to Anderson, the polar vortex could be displaced from its normal area above the North Pole and plunge into central Canada from time to time this winter. As Canadians experienced in February 2021, that can make for a bitter and brutal few weeks.

“I believe we may see at least three extreme blasts of bitterly cold air dropping down into the southern Prairies this winter,” Anderson said, noting that temperatures could plunge lower than 30 degrees below zero Celsius on those occasions. “This winter will likely end up colder than the winter of 2018-2019 and the coldest winter since 2013-2014 in the region.”

The winter will be about 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius lower than average for the southern Prairies, Anderson said, with the lowest departures across Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Such surges may take a toll on the heating bill but could spell good news to hobbyists in need of solid ice conditions, such as ice fishers or outdoor hockey players.

Frequent cold intrusions across the Prairie region this winter should also force the secondary storm track well far to the south in the U.S., Anderson said. Storms will instead take aim at the Rockies and southern Plains of the U.S., before swinging northward and cutting up into parts of eastern Canada.

“The majority of the snowstorms will track up into Ontario and Quebec,” he said.