More Atlantic hurricanes in 2025: NOAA

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 to Nov. 30 predicts a 30 per cent chance of a near-normal season, a 60 per cent chance of an above-normal season and a 10 per cent chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (63 kilometres per hour or higher). Of those, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 117 km/h or higher), including three to five major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 179 km/h or higher).

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from Hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”

The season is expected to be above normal – due to a confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation.

High activity continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds. The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.

This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.