Temperatures to stay at or around record levels: WMO

World Meteorological Organization – Global climate predictions show temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, said a new report from the World Meteorological Organization.

The report forecasted the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 to be between 1.2 and 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than the average over the years 1850 to 1900.

There is an 80 per cent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record of 2024. There is also an 86 per cent chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5 C above the pre-industrial level.

There is a forecast 70 per cent chance that the five-year average warming for 2025 to 2029 will be more than 1.5 C, according to the report. This is up from 47 per cent in last year’s report (for the 2024 to 2028 period) and up from 32 per cent in the 2023 report for the 2023 to 2027 period.

Arctic warming over the next five extended winters (November to March) is predicted to be more than three and a half times the global average, at 2.4 C above the average temperature during the most recent 30-year baseline period (1991 to 2020). Predictions of sea ice for March 2025 to 2029 suggest further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.

Predicted precipitation patterns for May to September in the years 2025 to 2029, relative to the 1991 to 2020 baseline, suggest wetter than average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier than average conditions for this season over the Amazon.

Recent years, apart from 2023, in the South Asian region have been wetter than average and the forecast suggests this will continue for the 2025 to 2029 period. This may not be the case for all individual seasons in this period.

The update is produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office as the WMO’s Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction.

“We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.

“Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt.”

The 1.5 C (and 2.0 C) level specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term level of warming inferred from global temperatures, typically over 20 years. Temporary exceedances of such levels are expected to occur with increasing frequency as the underlying rise in global temperature approaches the level.

WMO’s State of the Global Climate 2024 report released in March confirmed that 2024 was likely the first calendar year to be more than 1.5 C above the 1850 to 1900 average, with a global mean near-surface temperature of 1.55 ± 0.13 C above the 1850 to 1900 average. It was the warmest year in the 175-year observational record.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to hold the increase in long-term global average surface temperature well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 C. The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5 C risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather and every fraction of a degree of warming matters.

This latest decadal climate forecast predicts that the central estimate of the 20-year average warming for 2015 to 2034 will be 1.44 C, (with a 90 per cent confidence range of 1.22 to 1.54 C).