UK issues red heat warning for first time ever, Europe swelters

WMO – The United Kingdom is forecast to see temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius for the first time ever, causing the UK’s Meteorological Office (Met Office) to issue a ‘red’ warning for exceptional heat for the first time ever. Meanwhile, temperatures in Portugal and Spain have climbed as high as 46°C.

“Exceptional, perhaps record-breaking temperatures are likely early (this) week, quite widely across the red warning area on Monday, and focused a little more east and north on Tuesday. Currently there is a 50 per cent chance we could see temperatures top 40°C and 80 per cent we will see a new maximum temperature reached,” said Met Office Chief Meteorologist Paul Gundersen.

“Nights are also likely to be exceptionally warm, especially in urban areas. This is likely to lead to widespread impacts on people and infrastructure. Therefore, it is important people plan for the heat and consider changing their routines. This level of heat can have adverse health effects.”

The step up in warning level to red is running parallel to an increase in the current Heat Health Warning to Level 4 for England by the UK Health Security Agency.

The current record high temperature in the UK is 38.7°C, which was reached at Cambridge Botanic Garden on July 25, 2019.

Weather forecast models are run numerous times to help quantify the likelihood of a particular event occurring and estimate the uncertainty which is always present in weather forecasting to some degree. Some models now produce a 50 per cent chance of maximum temperatures in excess of 40°C in isolated parts of the UK for the start of the week. Mid, to high, 30s Celsius will be seen more widely with an 80 per cent chance we will exceed the current record.

“In a recent study we found that the likelihood of extremely hot days in the UK has been increasing and will continue to do so during the course of the century,” said climate attribution scientist at the Met Office, Dr Nikos Christidis.

“Climate change has already influenced the likelihood of temperature extremes in the UK. The chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK could be as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence. The likelihood of exceeding 40°C anywhere in the UK in a given year has also been rapidly increasing, and, even with current pledges on emissions reductions, such extremes could be taking place every 15 years in the climate of 2100,” Christidis added.

Extreme heat events do occur within natural climate variation due to changes in global weather patterns. However, the increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of these events over recent decades is clearly linked to the observed warming of the planet and can be attributed to human activity.

Heatwave hitting all Western Europe

Extreme heat has already spread over Portugal, Spain and France. In Portugal, temperatures have reached highs up to around 46°C. Red warnings are in effect for much of Portugal as hot conditions increase the risk of wildfires.

Wildfires have torn through France in recent weeks, as well as other European countries including Portugal and Spain, and more than 13,000 hectares of land were on fire in the Gironde region in the past five days, up from 7,300 hectares on Friday.

In the latest weather warning from Meteofrance, 15 of France’s 96 departments were listed on “red” alert and 51 on “orange” alert, with residents of those areas urged to be vigilant. The heatwave in western France is expected to peak on Monday, with temperatures climbing above 40°C.

In neighboring Spain, firefighters were battling a series of blazes on Saturday after days of unusually high temperatures.

A recent modelling study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, concluded that the expansion of a high-pressure system over the Atlantic — the Azores High — is leading to the driest conditions on the Iberian Peninsula in the last thousand years.