UN outlines member states’ climate change plans

United Nations – The United Nations (UN) released a report on Feb. 26 outlining the plans for 75 of its member states to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in compliance with the goals set out in the Paris Agreement.

The NDC (nationally determined contributions) Synthesis Report is comprised of 48 new or updated NDCs submitted on or before Dec. 31, 2020. The report is an initial version of the final one to be released before the UN’s Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland this November.

Nations included in the report are Australia, South Korea, Argentina, Mexico, Russia, the United Kingdom and all members of the European Union. The nations in the report represent 40 per cent of the parties in the Paris Agreement and 30 per cent of global GHG emissions. Canada, the United States, China and India have not submitted updated NDCs before the deadline and were not included in the report.

“2021 is a make or break year to confront the global climate emergency. The science is clear, to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C, we must cut global emissions by 45% by 2030 from 2010 levels. Today’s interim report from the UNFCCC is a red alert for our planet. It shows governments are nowhere close to the level of ambition needed to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The major emitters must step up with much more ambitious emissions reductions targets for 2030 in their Nationally Determined Contributions well before the November UN Climate Conference in Glasgow,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

“Now is the time. The global coalition committed to net-zero emissions by 2050 is growing, across governments, businesses, investors, cities, regions and civil society. COVID-19 recovery plans offer the opportunity to build back greener and cleaner. Decision makers must walk the talk. Long-term commitments must be matched by immediate actions to launch the decade of transformation that people and planet so desperately need,“ he added.

The report shows that while the majority of nations represented increased their individual levels of ambition to reduce emissions, their combined impact puts them on a path to achieve a less than 1 per cent reduction by 2030 compared to 2010 levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, by contrast, has indicated that emission reduction ranges to meet the 1.5°C temperature goal should be around 45 per cent lower.

The projected total GHG emission levels by the nations in the report were the equivalent of 14.04 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2025 and 13.67 billion tonnes by 2030. The two figures represent a 0.5 per cent increase and a 2.1 per cent decrease from 2017 levels, respectively. The report stated that the nation’s collective GHG emissions could be reduced by at least 87 per cent in 2050 from 2017 levels, but that long-term goals are also uncertain.

It also indicated how each nation was going to implement their NDCs through various means, as well as how each nation would mitigate and adapt to climate change.

The Paris Agreement states that global net anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions needs to decline by 25 per cent from 2010 levels by 2030 and reach net zero by 2070 in order to reduce global warming to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.