Warm three months in Prairies, precipitation hard to predict: ECCC
A long-range temperature forecast map for August, September and October 2021. (Photo credit: Environment and Climate Change Canada)
WINNIPEG – Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) released its monthly long-range temperature and precipitation forecasts for future months on July 31, and in its forecast for August, September and October, ECCC predicts warmer-than-normal conditions over the next three months for the Prairies, but probably not as dry.
In the southern halves of all three Prairie provinces, as well as parts of northeastern Manitoba, the map shows a probability of 60 to 70 per cent of above-normal temperatures based on data from 1981 to 2010. In those areas, there was also a 20 to 30 per cent chance of near-normal temperatures and a 10 to 20 per cent chance of below-normal temperatures.
However, in the northern halves of the three provinces, the probabilities of above-normal temperatures range from 40 to 60 per cent, as well as a 30 to 40 per cent chance of near-normal temperatures and a 10 to 20 per cent chance of below-normal temperatures. In the Churchill area, the probability of above-normal temperatures was as high as 80 per cent.
Areas of the country which were rated to have an 80 per cent chance or higher of above-normal temperatures were British Columbia’s Interior, Vancouver Island, Hudson Bay, James Bay, the Great Lakes and offshore areas of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.
The precipitation forecast for the Prairies was more moderate than what the region has experienced over the summer. All of the Prairies are expected to have a 40 to 50 per cent probability of normal precipitation over August, September and October. However, parts of southern Saskatchewan and Alberta only have a chance of between 20 to 30 per cent of above-normal precipitation and a 40 to 50 per cent probability of below-normal precipitation. In most of Manitoba, there is an equal 30 to 40 per cent chance of above-normal and below-normal amounts.
The seasonal forecasts are based on a 20-member ensemble of predictions, 10 members from each of two coupled atmosphere-ocean-land physical climate models.
