Is supply management shielding Canada’s poultry and egg farmers from bird flu?

Glacier FarmMedia – The U.S.’s bird flu problems are still running roughshod over the headlines.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, American domestic poultry infected or culled due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has climbed to over 168 million since 2022. About 2.07 million were noted in March alone as of March 25, a slow down compared to the 12.67 million birds affected in February 2025, and 23.19 million the month before.

That’s not touching the dairy cases that have ripped through the U.S. in recent months. Seventeen states had dairy cows sicken across 994 sites, as of March 25. Singular cases in swine and alpacas have also been reported.

Canada has had its own bird flu problems. Like many other regions of the world, late 2021-early 2022 marked the start of some of the worst bird flu years in farmer memory.

As of March 25, Canada’s bird flu totals had wracked up 14.57 million domestic birds impacted. One human case, which led to a teenager being hospitalized in B.C., did make national headlines. Dairy cases in the U.S. have also led the Canadian Food Inspection Agency to monitor Canada’s own dairy cows and milk but, as of late 2024, no evidence of the virus had yet been found in Canadian cattle.

In terms of gross animal deaths though, Canada’s bird flu battle seems a distant second to U.S. losses.

Is supply management muting bird flu?

Canada’s supply management system for eggs and poultry might be buffering those industries against the pathogen, some experts say.

Bruce Muirhead, a history professor with the University of Waterloo, has written extensively about the history of supply management in Canada. He is “absolutely convinced” supply management has been instrumental in protecting domestic dairy herds and poultry flocks from the volume bird flue outbreaks in the U.S.

The argument is that supply management tends to protect the existence of small family farms, which keeps poultry and cattle more isolated from disease, while mega-farms in the U.S. might see one infection lead to significant culls. On March 18, for example, an HPAI detection in Indiana resulted in 1.34 million birds impacted, according to the USDA. Another in Iowa in the same month claimed 400,000 birds. Both were raising pullets for table egg production.

“I think it’s a little fortuitous, a little bit legislative and the fact that quota is finite,” said Muirhead of Canada’s HPAI fortunes.

“There are some farms of 200,000 birds or so in Canada, but they are the exception rather than the rule. So I think the nature of the system actually means that farms are kept smaller as opposed to bigger.”

Phil Mount, vice-president of policy with the National Farmers Union (NFU), agrees that supply management limits farm sizes and, with it, the risk of animals contracting disease.

“The first benefit that supply management delivers is that we’ve maintained family scale production in this country over the last 50 years, whereas in the U.S. they see not only a loss of farms, but a dramatic increase in the scale of farms to the point where they become industrial production facilities rather than farms,” he said.

In the 30 years from 1970 to 2000, he estimated, the average U.S. dairy herd grew from 20 to 90 head. Then, over the last 15 years, he said, numbers jumped from 163 to 337 head.

“The average herd size in Canada today is about 92,” he said. “More than 60 per cent of all milk production in the U.S. occurs on farms with more than 2,500 cows. We just cannot imagine that scale here in Canada.”

Chris Hofley, communications officer with the Chicken Farmers of Canada, meanwhile, pointed to oversight baked into the supply management system.

That “allows us to enforce our mandatory, audited on-farm food safety program, meaning strict biosecurity protocols are always in place on the farm and in times of disease outbreak provides a structured and co-ordinated approach to disease prevention and response measures, helping to mitigate risks and safeguard the health of our flocks,” he said.

Do the numbers back it up?

Adjusted for industry size, however, Canada might not actually be better off than the U.S.

The nation has not seen the cross-livestock species spread that has caused alarm in the U.S., nor have egg prices skyrocketed, as American consumers have complained about their own egg supply.

But as of the last census in 2021, Canada claimed a poultry inventory of 162.44 million, including both egg and meat production. The losses since then represent almost nine per cent of that pre-bird flu 2021 flock.

In comparison, the U.S.’s last census in 2022 counted a poultry inventory of 2.39 billion. The outbreak had already hit at the U.S. sector by then, but losses still only calculate out to just over seven per cent of that total 2022 flock.

The U.S. Poultry and Egg Association argues that the feature sectors of the two countries are — for all practical purposes — incomparable due to the sheer size of the U.S. industry and its market.

“The demand for poultry, poultry products and poultry genetics is very high in the U.S.,” wrote Gwen Venable, executive vice-president of expo and communication services.

“The United States is the top producer of chicken meat and overall ranks as one of the top three poultry producing countries in the world. Small family oriented poultry operations would not suffice to meet the demand for poultry in the U.S.”

Venable was doubtful that the spread of HPAI has anything to do with farm sizes. Industry size, however, does, she argues.

“Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a fatal disease to poultry, and the disease is fatal in small poultry operations and large poultry operations.

“There are opportunities for HPAI to spread to more poultry in the U.S. because the industry is much larger than Canada’s to meet our demand domestically and internationally. The virus has the ability to mutate rapidly and spread via many routes, making it difficult to prevent.”

She was pragmatic when asked if she could picture the U.S. poultry and egg industries ever adopting a supply management system.

“If the U.S. experienced less demand for poultry, poultry products and genetics domestically and internationally, the U.S. poultry industry would adjust production to align with the demand.”

– This article was originally published in the April 14, 2025 issue of Farmtario.